Aze.US
Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov says the South Caucasus could become the most sensitive strategic direction for Russia after the war in Ukraine, while any destabilization in the region would carry serious risks for Moscow itself.
The South Caucasus is increasingly viewed through a security lens similar to that of the European Union as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov said in an interview with the Daily Europe Online channel.
According to Mammadov, policymakers are assessing where Moscow could concentrate its strategic attention once active hostilities in Ukraine subside. He outlined three broad directions often discussed in strategic calculations: the Baltic region, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus.
While NATO’s presence shapes the Baltic balance and competing interests from China, the United States, and regional states complicate Central Asia, Mammadov argued that the South Caucasus may remain the most sensitive arena in potential post-war scenarios.
He described Russia’s military objectives in Ukraine as centered on control over Donbas, securing a land corridor to Crimea, and turning the Sea of Azov into an internal maritime space. Applying similar logic to the South Caucasus, he suggested that hypothetical strategic interests could include gaining direct access toward Iran, limiting Central Asia’s connectivity with Europe, and shaping a regional configuration capable of influencing stability in the North Caucasus.
At the same time, Mammadov stressed that any destabilization of the South Caucasus would pose significant risks primarily for Russia itself, citing the region’s geography and the potential spillover of instability into the North Caucasus as factors that would be difficult to control.
He also pointed to shifting labor migration patterns from Central Asian countries, linking the trend to tightening Russian policies toward migrant workers and a broader decline in humanitarian engagement. As a result, regional states are increasingly diversifying migration destinations toward Turkey, the European Union, the Middle East, and parts of Asia.
Using human mobility as a pressure tool reflects limited remaining leverage and weakens long-term humanitarian ties, Mammadov said, adding that such dynamics encourage neighboring countries to pursue alternative political and economic partnerships.