AZE.US
Azerbaijani military journalist and political analyst Heydar Mirza said that any post-conflict integration between South Caucasus states outside Moscow’s mediation framework would significantly weaken Russia’s influence in the region.
Speaking on the YouTube channel FREEДОМ. KAVKAZ, Mirza argued that Russia’s regional strategy has historically relied on a centralized model in which bilateral processes between neighboring states are expected to pass through Moscow.
According to him, even symbolic normalization steps between Azerbaijan and Armenia – including direct dialogue without Russian involvement – alter the regional balance.
Integration as a Structural Shift
Mirza suggested that if Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia were to move toward deeper economic and political coordination – including open borders and freer capital movement – this would reduce Moscow’s traditional leverage, which he described as being rooted in conflict management mechanisms.
He noted that the absence of renewed large-scale border violence and the continuation of bilateral contacts between Baku and Yerevan challenge narratives suggesting that instability would follow any reduction of Russian involvement.
The Trans-Caspian Dimension
The analyst also highlighted the growing importance of East–West connectivity through the Caspian Sea, linking Central Asia to the South Caucasus and further to Europe. In his view, long-term development of this corridor would gradually rebalance regional geoeconomic dynamics.
Commenting on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Mirza said he believes neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia currently demonstrates strong interest in joining the bloc under present geopolitical conditions. He suggested that stalled membership dynamics may reflect broader strategic calculations.
Russia as Partner vs. Power Center
Mirza emphasized that discussions about reducing Russian influence should not be interpreted as a call for severing economic or historical ties. He pointed to decades of trade relations and social connections between the two countries.
However, he questioned whether Moscow is prepared to operate strictly as an equal partner in the region rather than as a dominant geopolitical center.
Regional Architecture Debate
As an alternative model, Mirza proposed the concept of closer coordination among the three South Caucasus republics, arguing that regional mechanisms could provide additional stability amid shifting global power structures.
His remarks reflect an ongoing debate within Azerbaijani expert circles about the long-term security architecture of the South Caucasus and the evolving roles of external actors, including Russia, Turkey, the European Union, China, and the United States.