Aze.US
Land values in Baku are projected to increase by around 15 percent in 2026, continuing a broader upward trend in the capital’s real estate market, according to Vugar Oruj, chairman of the Azerbaijan Society of Appraisers.
The forecast follows an estimated 20 percent rise in land prices in 2025, while growth is expected to moderate to about 11.5 percent in 2027, signaling continued expansion alongside a gradual slowdown in momentum.
New-build housing to remain the fastest-growing segment
Oruj estimates that prices for newly constructed residential buildings in Baku will rise by an average of 17 percent in 2026 and 18.5 percent in 2027.
District-level projections for 2026 suggest the strongest increases in:
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Sabail – 21.2%
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Narimanov – 20.8%
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Yasamal – 19.6%
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Khatai -18.3%
More moderate growth is expected in:
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Nizami – 17.8%
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Nasimi – 15.6%
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Binagadi – 14.3%
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Sabunchu – 13.7%
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Surakhani – 13%
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Khazar – 11.2%
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Garadagh – 7.8%
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Pirallahi – 4%
A similar upward trajectory is forecast for 2027, with Sabail, Yasamal, and Narimanov again leading the market.
Land market growth slowing but still strong
After the sharp rise recorded in 2025, land price dynamics are expected to cool but remain positive.
For 2026, the largest projected increases include:
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Narimanov – 18.5%
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Yasamal – 17.4%
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Sabail – 17%
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Khatai – 16%
Even the lowest-growth districts are still forecast to post single-digit gains, indicating persistent investor demand across the capital.
Growth is expected to slow further in 2027, though the overall trajectory remains upward.
Other real estate segments show moderating growth
Price increases are projected to be more modest in other property categories:
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Individual residential houses:
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13.5% in 2025
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9% in 2026
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6.5% in 2027
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Commercial and office space:
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13.9% in 2025
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11.5% in 2026
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7.8% in 2027
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This pattern suggests a gradual normalization of the market following several years of rapid expansion.
Investors continue to focus on land and new developments
Overall market dynamics indicate that while price growth is set to continue, the pace is becoming more measured compared with previous years.
The most active segments remain:
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land plots
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newly built residential projects
Investor interest is increasingly concentrated in these areas, reflecting expectations of long-term urban expansion and sustained housing demand in Baku.