Aze.US
Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine exposed a major strategic miscalculation by Moscow, which did not anticipate the scale of Ukrainian resistance or the political resilience of President Volodymyr Zelensky, Azerbaijani political analyst Chingiz Mammadov said in an interview with Musavat TV.
The war in Ukraine has significantly reshaped the global balance of power while also mobilizing Western political, financial, and military support for Kyiv, the analyst noted. Without backing from the United States and European countries, sustaining Ukraine’s defense would have been considerably more difficult despite strong domestic resistance.
According to Mammadov, Russia’s central strategic error was the expectation of a rapid collapse of Ukrainian defenses and leadership. Instead, Ukraine demonstrated sustained military resistance, while Zelensky maintained internal and international political support.
A War Without Decisive Victory
The analyst argued that Russia is now locked in a prolonged conflict from which it is difficult to exit without presenting a tangible victory to its domestic audience.
Among Moscow’s declared objectives, he cited control over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions-goals that remain only partially fulfilled, complicating prospects for a favorable end to the war.
In this context, the conflict is increasingly resembling a war of attrition, gradually consuming Russia’s military, economic, and resource capacity.
Expectations of External Pressure
Mammadov said Moscow may have anticipated changes in the international political landscape and possible external pressure on Kyiv to make concessions.
However, while Ukraine may be open to negotiations or limited compromises, it is not prepared to capitulate, whereas demonstrating victory remains politically essential for Russia.
Duration Tied to Resources
He also pointed to assessments by Western leaders that the war could continue until Russia’s strategic resources are significantly depleted. Historically, prolonged external conflicts of this type have often produced serious internal consequences for the states involved.