AZE.US
Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute, shared his views in an interview with Echo Baku on the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process, the role of global powers, and shifting political dynamics in the region.
According to Iskandaryan, the potential signing of a peace treaty should not automatically be equated with lasting peace.
“Signing a document is a step, a symbol – but it is not peace itself,” he said, emphasizing that even legally binding agreements do not eliminate long-term mistrust or political friction.
Constitutional Issue and Negotiation Leverage
Commenting on discussions surrounding possible amendments to Armenia’s Constitution, Iskandaryan suggested that Baku has little incentive to rush into signing an agreement. In his view, Azerbaijan currently holds stronger negotiating leverage following the outcomes of recent years.
He noted that the current diplomatic configuration is largely a consequence of the 2020 war, subsequent developments in 2023, and broader geopolitical shifts.
Washington’s Role
Iskandaryan argued that while the South Caucasus is not a top-tier priority for the United States, diplomatic progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be framed in Washington as a foreign policy success.
He suggested that both Yerevan and Baku are operating within a broader geopolitical context, adjusting their rhetoric and positioning to align with evolving international dynamics.
Russia and Regional Realities
Addressing Moscow’s role, Iskandaryan acknowledged that Russia, like Turkey and Iran, has longstanding strategic interests in the South Caucasus. He emphasized that Russian policy toward the region is heavily influenced by developments elsewhere – particularly the war in Ukraine.
In his assessment, major shifts in Russia’s regional posture would likely depend on changes in the broader geopolitical environment rather than solely on local developments such as Armenian elections or even the signing of a peace treaty.
Public Sentiment and Long-Term Reconciliation
A significant part of the discussion focused on public perception and historical memory. Iskandaryan stressed that reconciliation between societies cannot be achieved overnight.
Even if a peace agreement is signed, he said, segments of both Armenian and Azerbaijani societies will continue to view each other with suspicion for years, if not decades.
“Peaceful coexistence does not require people to agree on everything,” he noted. “It requires the ability to disagree and still move forward.”
Looking Ahead
Iskandaryan concluded that while risks of renewed large-scale conflict may be lower than in previous years, sustainable peace will depend on political stability, regional balance, and broader international developments.
For now, he suggested, the South Caucasus remains shaped not only by local negotiations – but also by the evolving relationship between Washington and Moscow.