Aze.US
The recent visit of U.S. Vice President JD Vance to the South Caucasus signals a deeper geopolitical shift than routine diplomacy, according to REAL party chairman Natig Jafarli.
Jafarli argues that Washington is gradually constructing a zone of stability and cooperation in the region under U.S. strategic patronage, with Türkiye positioned as the key local partner for implementing that framework on the ground.
For the Trump administration, Türkiye remains the primary regional ally capable of translating U.S. strategic intent into practical influence, he said, noting that direct and sustained American control in the South Caucasus is limited by geography, cost, and long-term political risk.
He also highlighted the symbolic weight of diplomatic messaging surrounding the visit, particularly references to Azerbaijan’s simultaneous working relationships with both Türkiye and Israel-two of Washington’s closest partners in the broader Middle East. In high-level politics, such phrasing reflects strategic hierarchy rather than rhetorical coincidence, Jafarli said.
The visit may also carry implications for Armenia’s internal political timeline. Economic figures and investment language voiced during meetings could function as indirect signals of political support ahead of upcoming electoral dynamics, he added.
More broadly, the trip reflects an ongoing redistribution of regional influence. As Russia’s traditional role weakens, the United States appears positioned to assume the global strategic layer of influence, while Türkiye fills the operational space within the region itself.
Jafarli concludes that this emerging configuration could open a pathway toward longer-term stability and economic normalization across the South Caucasus.