By AZE.US
Turkey has little incentive to risk its strategic partnership with Azerbaijan by opening its border with Armenia separately from a broader regional settlement, Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade said in an interview.
Speaking on the Daily Europe Online YouTube channel, Velizade said Ankara’s larger interest is not the border opening by itself but the transport access it could provide through Armenia to Azerbaijan and onward to Central Asia.
“The border with Armenia needs to be opened to facilitate access to Azerbaijan and then to the countries of Central Asia,” Velizade said. In his assessment, that objective makes continued coordination between Ankara and Baku more valuable to Turkey than a unilateral move focused only on bilateral normalization with Yerevan.
Velizade argued that the Turkish-Azerbaijani partnership carries geopolitical weight developed over decades. He said a decision by Ankara to abandon coordinated action with Baku could call the basis of that partnership into question, while producing benefits that would be limited by comparison.
Normalization and the Peace Process
Turkey and Armenia have been pursuing a normalization process since 2022. On May 13, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said bureaucratic preparations for direct trade had been completed, while technical and administrative work on opening the shared border was continuing.
Velizade said Azerbaijan has sufficient leverage to argue that Turkish-Armenian normalization and progress toward a final Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement should reinforce one another. His comments represent an analyst’s assessment, not an announced change in Turkish policy.
The program’s host also raised a theory that criticism of Azerbaijan in parts of the Turkish media over school-uniform rules could be used to create political pressure around the Armenia border issue. Velizade did not present such a link as established. He said that scenario would imply creating tension first and then using it to justify unilateral action, but questioned whether Ankara could gain from such an approach.
Why 2031 Entered the Debate
Velizade also addressed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that he aims to secure the signing and ratification of the initialed peace agreement with Azerbaijan by 2031. Pashinyan made the statement at an Armenian Cabinet meeting on Oct. 15, describing the agreement as a leading priority for his government. Armenpress reported that the deadline refers to the current government’s term and does not mean the treaty must wait until 2031.
Velizade linked the uncertainty over timing to Armenia’s constitutional process. Baku has maintained that provisions it views as territorial claims against Azerbaijan must be removed before the agreement is formally signed. Velizade said it remains unclear when Yerevan expects to complete the necessary procedures within the period Pashinyan outlined.
He also suggested that the Armenian government may use uncertainty over the timetable when negotiating with different partners, including over the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP. At the same time, he said there was not enough clarity to draw firm conclusions about Pashinyan’s motives or the project’s final practical terms.
Azerbaijan’s Wider Diplomatic Network
Velizade pointed to Azerbaijan’s ability to maintain relations with multiple centers of power as a broader source of resilience. He cited the seventh summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia, held in Baku on Oct. 15, as an example of platforms that allow middle powers such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to help shape the international agenda.
The Azerbaijani presidency said the summit focused on strengthening cooperation in transport, connectivity, digitalization and other fields. Velizade said the format’s value would depend on whether its members could turn dialogue into functioning institutions and concrete results.
For Azerbaijan, he said, a broad diplomatic network also serves as a security instrument by giving Baku more room to balance partners and reduce exposure to outside pressure. In his view, any disagreements with Ankara should therefore be judged against strategic interests extending well beyond the Armenian border.
AZE.US