BAKU, Azerbaijan - The Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process has produced more public discussion than concrete action over the past two months, political analyst Farhad Mammadov said, describing substantive negotiations as effectively stalled.
Mammadov wrote on Telegram that official contacts are continuing under earlier agreements and called a recent meeting between the two countries’ leaders in Bishkek constructive. However, he said there had been no visible progress on the most important issues, according to reports by Vesti Baku and 1news.az.
He said talks had been expected to accelerate after Armenia’s parliamentary elections, the formation of a government and the adoption of its program. Instead, he said, Armenia has not publicly presented a draft of a new constitution, a referendum is not yet in sight, and there is no public information about tenders or a contractor for construction connected with the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, known as TRIPP.
Mammadov said a pause in civil-society contacts had worsened the atmosphere. He also cited an incident in which an Azerbaijani serviceman crossed an undelimited and undemarcated section of the border as an additional complication.
Azerbaijan remains committed to what Mammadov called the de facto peace established in Washington in August 2025. He criticized Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s stated intention to conclude a peace treaty by 2031, arguing that such a timeline increases uncertainty and lowers expectations.
Mammadov said Baku’s preferred sequence remains a referendum in Armenia, adoption of a constitution without territorial claims against Azerbaijan, and then the signing and ratification of a peace treaty. The timing - whether six months, one year or two years - is for Armenia’s government to decide, he said, adding that he does not expect a treaty before a new constitution is adopted.
He also dismissed public discussion of a possible exchange of enclaves and exclaves as speculation. The matter has not been discussed by the intergovernmental border commission, he said, a point also made by the commission’s Armenian co-chair, Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan.
The commission has agreed on procedures and on moving from north to south in the border-demarcation process, Mammadov said. He said sections at TRIPP entry and exit points could be handled separately when that issue becomes relevant.
Mammadov argued that Pashinyan’s comments about territorial exchanges create the impression that negotiations have taken place when they have not. He said the peace agenda needs concrete events, principled decisions and political will, warning that waiting for regional changes in hopes of revisiting agreed terms could further damage trust.