BAKU, Azerbaijan - Military cooperation among Azerbaijan, Turkey and Uzbekistan is creating new security links between the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Azerbaijani political analyst Ahmad Alili said.
In an interview with the News From the Caucasus channel, Alili said joint exercises involving the three countries show that the relationship is acquiring practical defense content. He linked drills in Karabakh and Nakhchivan to the protection of transport routes, including the U.S.-backed TRIPP project.
The “Power of Unity 2026” exercise brought together more than 3,500 personnel from Azerbaijan, Turkey and Uzbekistan. The drills were held in stages in the Karabakh Economic Region, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and Azerbaijan’s sector of the Caspian Sea, according to public announcements about the exercise.
Turkey’s Role Depends on Partnership With Baku
Alili said Turkey could gain more room to strengthen its position in the South Caucasus over the next decade as Russia and Iran contend with domestic and regional pressures. Turkey also faces economic difficulties, he said, but their effect on Ankara’s regional policy differs from the constraints facing Moscow and Tehran.
The decisive condition for greater Turkish influence is continued effective cooperation with Azerbaijan, Alili said. In his assessment, Ankara’s successes in the South Caucasus have depended heavily on its partnership with Baku.
He emphasized that Azerbaijan acts as an independent partner with its own interests, not as a proxy for Turkey. That distinction, he said, is central to understanding the relationship.
Closer links with Central Asia could give the partnership additional scale. Alili described Uzbekistan as the most visible participant in the emerging arrangement. Kazakhstan also has an interest in regional security, but its membership in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and other Moscow-centered bodies limits its freedom of military and political maneuver, he argued.
Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan could eventually become more closely involved, while Georgia already maintains intensive defense contacts with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Alili said.
Military Technology Shifts the Balance
Alili said broader access to drones and precision weapons is increasing the capabilities of regional powers and making it more difficult for major states to dictate political outcomes.
In his view, the United States, Russia and China no longer possess the same ability to divide the world into spheres of influence through an agreement among themselves. Regional countries now have more political and military tools to resist such arrangements, he said.
Implications for Armenia
For Armenia, the changing security environment makes a rapid settlement with Azerbaijan more important, Alili said. He argued that postponing major decisions until 2031 would be a mistake and called for action in the coming months.
Alili said Yerevan should move quickly to present a new constitutional text and set a referendum. Azerbaijan has repeatedly said Armenia’s constitution contains provisions that Baku views as territorial claims and has sought constitutional changes before the peace agreement is finalized.
The analyst also warned that Yerevan could misread supportive diplomatic signals from outside partners as guarantees of extensive assistance. Such assumptions, he said, could lead to flawed calculations, including in Armenia’s assessment of normalization with Turkey.
Armenia’s close contacts with Iran and Russia’s continuing influence also leave open questions about the country’s long-term security orientation, Alili said. Delaying the peace process while the regional balance changes would not serve Armenia’s interests, he argued.
Source: Vesti Baku, based on Ahmad Alili’s interview.