Aze.US
Tensions between Moscow and Baku remain unresolved despite recent diplomatic contacts, Ukrainian political analyst Vitaliy Portnikov said, pointing to continued disputes linked to the war in Ukraine and attacks affecting Azerbaijani interests.
Speaking after the Munich Security Conference, Portnikov noted that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev publicly rejected the idea that repeated shelling incidents targeting Azerbaijan’s embassy in Kyiv were accidental. The remarks came shortly after Aliyev’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which Russian officials suggested relations were stabilizing.
According to the analyst, such claims of normalization are contradicted by Russia’s military actions in Ukraine that damaged Azerbaijani-linked energy infrastructure and by the broader political context surrounding the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger aircraft by Russian air defenses. He argued that Baku has little incentive to overlook these events or return to previous patterns of deference toward Moscow.
Portnikov also highlighted growing U.S. engagement in the South Caucasus, including Washington’s interest in regional transport corridors that would require lasting normalization between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Strategic cooperation between Baku and Washington, alongside Azerbaijan’s long-standing partnership with Turkey, signals what he described as a gradual shift away from Russia’s residual sphere of influence.
The analyst said the war in Ukraine has weakened Moscow’s regional leverage while increasing Western attention to Azerbaijan’s geopolitical and energy role. In this environment, Azerbaijani leadership is more willing to respond openly to what Portnikov characterized as long-standing Russian disregard for the country’s sovereignty.
He added that frustration in Moscow over Baku’s independent posture is likely to grow, but Russia’s capacity to reverse the trend is constrained by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the diversion of its political and military resources.
In Portnikov’s assessment, the current trajectory suggests not reconciliation but a continued widening of distance between the two countries, shaped by shifting regional alliances and the broader consequences of the war.