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Despite the sharp rhetoric between Israel and Turkey, a direct military conflict between the two countries remains highly unlikely, according to political analyst Elchin Alioglu.
Alioglu argued that the chances of an actual war are extremely low, saying the current wave of hostile statements from both sides is aimed more at domestic audiences than at preparing for a real battlefield confrontation. In his view, politicians, government figures and media outlets in both countries are using the confrontation to influence voters and consolidate support at home.
He said this is especially true in the context of political competition, where anti-Israel rhetoric in Turkey and anti-Turkey narratives in Israel are serving internal political needs. According to the analyst, much of the escalation should be read through the lens of electoral strategy and the struggle for undecided voters, rather than as a sign that war is imminent.
At the same time, Alioglu stressed that the rivalry itself is real. Turkey and Israel both seek a leading strategic role in the Middle East, and that competition extends beyond rhetoric. He pointed to Syria, Libya, Africa and the Horn of Africa as areas where the two states are engaged in serious geopolitical and economic competition.
Still, he said rivalry does not automatically translate into war. On the contrary, both states understand the cost of direct confrontation. Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, while Turkey has one of the strongest militaries in the region and is also a NATO member. Any armed incident between the two would carry far broader consequences and could quickly draw in Western powers, a scenario that outside actors have little interest in allowing.
Alioglu said the more realistic arena of confrontation is not a formal war, but an expanding shadow struggle involving intelligence activity, disinformation, influence operations and competition for regional leverage. In that sense, he suggested, the clash is already underway – just not in the form many headlines imply.
He also recalled that Israel and Turkey were effectively strategic partners in the 1990s, before relations deteriorated sharply after the 2010 Gaza flotilla crisis and a series of diplomatic confrontations that followed.
For now, the analyst’s conclusion is clear: tensions may keep rising, but a full-scale war between Israel and Turkey remains a remote scenario.