AZE.US
The prospect of a formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is increasingly viewed by regional analysts as a turning point that could reshape the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus – and significantly reduce Russia’s traditional leverage in the region.
For decades, Moscow’s influence was closely tied to its role in managing – and often mediating – the conflict between Baku and Yerevan.
The unresolved status of Nagorno-Karabakh functioned as a structural instrument of regional control. With the territorial issue effectively settled after the 2020 war and Azerbaijan’s 2023 operation restoring full sovereignty over the area, that mechanism has largely disappeared.
The Conflict Factor No Longer Central
Analysts argue that Russia’s ability to project power in the South Caucasus historically depended on maintaining a security-dependent environment.
If Azerbaijan and Armenia finalize and implement a comprehensive peace treaty, the strategic landscape would shift in several ways:
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The conflict would no longer serve as a tool of political influence;
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Armenia’s foreign policy options would expand;
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Azerbaijan’s regional leadership role would consolidate;
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External actors, including the United States and the European Union, would gain additional diplomatic space.
A durable peace would reduce Moscow’s role as a mandatory intermediary – a position it held for much of the post-Soviet period.
Armenia’s Strategic Recalibration
Armenia has increasingly diversified its foreign relations in recent years, engaging more actively with Western institutions while reassessing its security arrangements. Although Russia remains an important actor, the perception of unconditional alignment has weakened.
A finalized peace agreement with Azerbaijan would further accelerate this recalibration by removing the central justification for Russian security dominance in the bilateral equation.
Azerbaijan’s Expanding Diplomatic Space
For Azerbaijan, normalization with Armenia reinforces a broader strategy of regional connectivity and economic integration. Baku has positioned itself as a transport and energy hub linking the South Caucasus to Central Asia and Europe.
A stable regional environment enhances these ambitions and strengthens Azerbaijan’s negotiating position across multiple geopolitical axes.
Moscow’s Strategic Dilemma
Observers note that Russia faces a structural dilemma: it can either adapt to a post-conflict South Caucasus built on economic cooperation and sovereignty, or continue operating within a conflict-management framework that no longer reflects regional realities.
While Moscow retains economic, cultural and security ties across the region, the erosion of the conflict factor represents a tangible reduction of leverage.
The trajectory of the Baku-Yerevan peace process will therefore not only define bilateral relations but also influence the long-term architecture of power in the South Caucasus.