AZE.US
A direct clash between Iran and the Gulf monarchies is one of the scenarios that could emerge from the current war, according to former Azerbaijani foreign minister Tofig Zulfugarov, who argues that a lasting diplomatic settlement remains highly unlikely.
In his reading, the most that might be achievable in the near term is some form of temporary ceasefire. Even that, he suggests, would be fragile and unlikely to hold for long. Zulfugarov points to the continued buildup of U.S. forces in the region and says the broader trajectory still favors continued pressure rather than a durable peace formula.
He argues that Gulf Arab states could eventually be drawn into the conflict in one form or another, most likely through air operations rather than a ground campaign. He does not expect a large-scale naval war either, saying Iran’s capabilities at sea have already been significantly constrained.
For Zulfugarov, the larger problem is that the war’s continuation may suit outside powers more than its resolution. He describes a scenario closer to a long war of managed attrition than to a conventional peace process: not a full settlement, but not a definitive end either. In that framework, Iran remains under constant pressure through a mix of economic control, military strikes and strategic isolation.
He also says one of the most effective ways for the process to continue, from the standpoint of the United States and Israel, would be to push Iran into direct confrontation with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. Those states, he notes, have the financial means to sustain such a confrontation and could also become major buyers of weapons in the process.
Zulfugarov presents this not as a side possibility but as part of a darker regional logic in which the war gradually expands, shifts form and draws in additional actors without necessarily reaching a clear political endpoint. In his interpretation, even if open combat slows down for a time, the broader process of weakening Iran is likely to continue.
He goes further, arguing that one of the underlying outcomes being pursued is to push Iran toward a deeper state of long-term degradation, invoking comparisons with the trajectories seen in Libya and Syria. That is why, in his view, talk of a stable diplomatic resolution remains unconvincing.
The result is a grim forecast: the war may not end cleanly, and the next stage could be less about a negotiated settlement than about who gets drawn in next. For Zulfugarov, the Gulf monarchies are among the most plausible candidates.