BAKU, Azerbaijan - A $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil could add about $1.2 billion to Azerbaijan’s annual current-account surplus, Central Bank Governor Taleh Kazimov said.
A $50 increase in the price of 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas would produce an additional positive effect of about $900 million, Kazimov said in an interview with Global Finance published Oct. 16. The estimates were also reported by Report.
The calculations estimate how energy prices could affect Azerbaijan’s external balance. They do not represent budget revenue already received.
Kazimov said higher energy prices also create an opposing risk because about 80% of Azerbaijan’s non-energy imports come from economies that are themselves energy importers. A 10% rise in oil prices increases inflation among the country’s trading partners by about 0.67%, he said, adding pressure to the cost of imported goods.
The net effect of changing energy prices remains positive for Azerbaijan, according to Kazimov. He said exchange-rate stability continues to be the main anchor of monetary policy and helps limit imported inflation.
The Central Bank’s baseline forecast puts inflation at 6.1% at the end of 2026 and 5.8% at the end of 2027, though Kazimov said supply-side risks could push prices higher. The bank is also seeking to strengthen the transmission of interest-rate decisions through further development of the money market and instruments linked to the AZIR benchmark.