BAKU, Azerbaijan - The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for Azerbaijan’s economic growth in 2026 to 1.7%, while sharply raising its estimate for the country’s current-account surplus.
The updated projections appear in the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, Vesti Baku reported. The fund expects gross domestic product to grow 2.3% in 2027, putting average growth over the two years at about 2%.
Growth Outlook Lowered
Compared with its May estimates, the IMF cut Azerbaijan’s growth forecast by 0.5 percentage point for 2026 and by 0.2 point for 2027.
Average annual inflation is projected at 5.8% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027. The unemployment rate is forecast at 5.3% and 5.2%, respectively.
Azerbaijani government institutions have issued different projections. The Economy Ministry expects growth of 1.7% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, while the Central Bank forecasts 0.5% and 2.6%, respectively.
External Surplus Revised Higher
The IMF raised its forecast for Azerbaijan’s current-account surplus to 11.3% of GDP in 2026 and 9.8% in 2027, up from May estimates of 9.7% and 5.4%.
Azerbaijan recorded a current-account surplus of $4.738 billion in the first half of 2026, equivalent to 12.4% of GDP. The strong external position provides a buffer, though the reduced GDP forecast points to modest domestic growth.
The IMF’s latest country indicators are available through its Azerbaijan DataMapper profile.
Sources: Vesti Baku; International Monetary Fund.