BAKU, Azerbaijan - Azeri Light crude rose to $131.62 a barrel, more than twice the $65 oil-price assumption used in Azerbaijan’s 2026 state budget.
The benchmark gained 81 cents, or 0.62%, in the latest trading, according to Vesti Baku. APA-Economics also reported the $131.62 price, up from $130.81.
December Brent futures reached $134.25 a barrel. Azeri Light on a free-on-board basis at Turkey’s Ceyhan port was quoted at $120.70, up 64 cents, or 0.53%.
IMF Raises Oil-Price Assumptions
The International Monetary Fund has also raised the oil-price assumptions used in its latest World Economic Outlook. The fund now assumes an average world oil price of $95.74 a barrel in 2026 and $87.39 in 2027.
Compared with its April estimates, the IMF increased the 2026 assumption by $13.52, or 16.4%, and the 2027 figure by $11.42, or 15%. The 2027 average would still be $8.35 below the 2026 level.
What the Price Gap Means
The difference between the market price and Azerbaijan’s $65 budget benchmark creates a potential cushion for government oil revenue. The budget assumption was confirmed by the Finance Ministry during preparation of the 2026 budget.
However, the entire price difference does not flow automatically into the state budget. The fiscal effect depends on export volumes, contract terms, tax payments, the government’s share in producing projects and how prices move over the full year.
Azeri Light is produced from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field complex. State energy company SOCAR holds a 35.3% interest in the project.
The current price remains below the blend’s record of $149.66 a barrel, set in July 2008. Its lowest recorded price was $15.81 on April 21, 2020.
Sources: Vesti Baku; APA-Economics; International Monetary Fund.