Turkey’s improving contacts with Armenia no longer trigger the level of alarm in Azerbaijan seen several years ago, while claims of a serious rift between Baku and Ankara are overstated, Azerbaijani political analyst Natig Jafarli said.
Jafarli made the assessment during a Pressclubs TV discussion with Armenian analyst Areg Kochinyan.
The conversation followed talks on restoring the Gyumri-Kars electricity transmission line and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that he hoped Armenia’s border and railway links with Turkey would reopen soon.
Armenian Infrastructure Minister Davit Khudatyan met a Turkish delegation in Yerevan on October 5 to discuss repairing and reactivating the cross-border power line as part of the Armenia-Turkey normalization process. The sides also emphasized connecting their electricity systems for bilateral and wider regional cooperation.
Infrastructure Can Be Prepared Before a Political Deal
Jafarli described the technical preparations as normal work between neighboring states. Documentation, communications and infrastructure should be prepared in advance, he said, so links can begin operating without another long delay once a political decision is made.
The main change, in his view, is Azerbaijan’s response. Current Armenia-Turkey contacts have not produced the wave of public objections or sharp statements from officials and government-aligned figures that accompanied similar initiatives in earlier years.
Jafarli also rejected suggestions that Ankara’s engagement with Yerevan signals a serious deterioration in Turkey-Azerbaijan relations. He said statements by individual journalists or public figures should not be treated as evidence of a breakdown in interstate cooperation.
He pointed to continuing official contacts and defense ties. Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler attended the October 1 distinguished visitors’ day of the Power of Unity-2026 exercise in Azerbaijan, which brought together more than 3,500 military personnel from Azerbaijan, Turkey and Uzbekistan.
Jafarli argued that economic, political and social links between Azerbaijan and Turkey have become so extensive that any deliberate turn toward confrontation would encounter substantial resistance in both societies.
Kochinyan Warns Against High Expectations
Kochinyan offered a more skeptical interpretation. He said Turkey could use progress with Armenia as leverage in its dealings with Baku during periods of public disagreement, though he doubted Ankara would open communications in direct defiance of Azerbaijan’s position.
The Armenian analyst said negotiations and infrastructure preparations should continue, but warned Yerevan against assuming that technical work guarantees an immediate political breakthrough.
Jafarli said he expects decisions on Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Turkey normalization to remain connected. In his assessment, the processes are still considered together, and the opening of regional communications will depend on political understandings among the parties.
Pashinyan has not announced a firm date for reopening the Armenia-Turkey border or restoring rail service. The border has been closed since 1993, while the current discussions have focused on preparing dormant energy and transport infrastructure for possible future use.
Source: Vesti Baku.