AZE.US Editorial
Baku is seeking to consolidate the military and diplomatic gains of recent years. The next task is harder: turning that advantage into a durable peace, functioning transport routes and long-term economic benefits.
In a discussion of new threats facing Azerbaijan, political scientist Eldar Namazov outlined a clear argument: the unfinished peace process with Armenia and an unstable regional environment require a stronger army and broader international security cooperation.
That position has merit. A state cannot base its defense policy on an assumption that neighboring countries will always keep their promises or that outside partners will preserve their current priorities.
But another conclusion follows. Military advantage must be reinforced with agreements, institutions and economic ties. Otherwise, security will demand ever-rising spending, while political gains will remain vulnerable to the next crisis.
The central question for Azerbaijan is how to reduce the cost of preserving what it has already achieved.
Peace Must Work Regardless of Personalities
Namazov links mistrust of Armenia’s leadership to its previous statements and actions. That experience matters in negotiations. Yet a peace agreement is necessary precisely because trust between the two sides is limited.
On Aug. 8, 2025, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia initialed the Agreement on Establishment of Peace and Inter-State Relations. The text provides for mutual recognition of territorial integrity, the renunciation of territorial claims and the non-use of force. It also calls for a bilateral commission to oversee implementation. This is a concrete foundation for a settlement, although initialing a text does not by itself bring a treaty into force.
Namazov views the Armenian Constitution as a matter of principle for Baku. But even resolving that dispute would not eliminate the need for daily work: agreeing border procedures, communication channels and mechanisms for handling incidents.
The durability of peace will be tested by whether obligations survive changes of government, falling approval ratings and domestic political pressure.
For that reason, it is insufficient to assess the settlement solely through personal confidence in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Azerbaijan needs mechanisms that will continue to operate under a different Armenian leadership.
It would also be wrong to classify everyone who did not vote as an opponent of peace. Nonparticipation can have many causes. Drawing conclusions about public attitudes requires independent evidence, not simply adding opposition votes to turnout figures.
A Transport Route Begins With Rules
In the interview, reopening communication between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan was described as one of the most important results of normalization.
Such a route could expand Baku’s transport options. But the commercial value of any corridor depends on its operating terms.
A freight carrier must know the transit cost, who is responsible for cargo, how long border procedures will take and what happens during a political escalation. An investor needs predictable rules for recouping capital. An insurer must be able to assess the risk of traffic being halted.
If those questions remain unanswered, a geographically shorter route can still be commercially unattractive.
The practical measure of success is therefore clear: agreed procedures, financing and defined responsibility among the participants. Those elements turn a political understanding into a route businesses are prepared to use.
Gas Creates Influence but Requires Partnership
Energy exports strengthen Azerbaijan’s negotiating position. Yet the relationship between supplier and buyer is based on mutual interest: one needs a dependable market, and the other needs dependable supply.
Expecting energy cooperation to secure political support on every issue overstates the power of gas diplomacy. Political disagreements can continue alongside commercial contracts.
Azerbaijan’s case is stronger when it rests on precise facts. The claim made in the interview that the entire supply system was built solely at Azerbaijan’s expense needs correction. The World Bank financed $800 million of the TANAP project, while the European Investment Bank approved €1.5 billion in financing for TAP in 2018. International financial institutions participated in building the Southern Gas Corridor.
That history reinforces the argument for mutual interest. Azerbaijan organized a major export route in which outside partners also invested.
Expanding supply further will require commercial foundations: long-term commitments from buyers, accessible financing and a distribution of risks associated with new investment. Discussing those terms will achieve more than debating whether Europe is sufficiently grateful to Baku.
Strategic Independence Requires an Economic Cushion
The principle that foreign policy should be based on national interests reflects Azerbaijan’s desire to make its own decisions. But freedom of action has a material foundation.
The broader the export base, the stronger public finances and the more diverse the sources of investment, the easier it is for the country to withstand outside pressure. When revenue and infrastructure depend on a small number of markets and routes, diplomatic independence becomes more expensive.
In that sense, developing non-oil businesses, competition and human capital is part of security policy. Those areas expand the resources the state can draw on in an adverse external scenario.
Defense spending should also be measured by results. A larger budget alone does not show which threats have been neutralized. What matters is the quality of training, intelligence, communications and infrastructure protection, as well as the ability to respond rapidly to a crisis.
Baku’s Next Task
Namazov’s remarks suggest that Azerbaijan should prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty. That is a reasonable starting point, but uncertainty should not be accepted as a permanent condition that can only be endured.
It should be reduced systematically through enforceable agreements with Armenia, reliable transport procedures, commercially grounded energy projects and a more resilient domestic economy.
Azerbaijan has already demonstrated an ability to achieve strategic results. It now needs to secure them in ways that require fewer emergency measures and lower costs whenever tensions rise.
The armed forces remain an essential security guarantee. Baku’s long-term success will depend on how strong its other guarantees become.
Source: Vesti Baku.