Ukraine’s Defense Ministry says long-range strikes have disabled 51% of Russia’s oil refining capacity, although the estimate has not been independently verified.
The ministry said the assessment was prepared by Ukrainian intelligence services, the General Staff and Defense Ministry analysts. It listed refineries and processing facilities in Moscow, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, Perm, Saratov and Syzran among the targets of recent attacks.
Kyiv says the strikes are disrupting fuel supplies to Russian forces and damaging the country’s economy. Russian authorities have not released comprehensive data on refinery damage, making the 51% figure impossible to verify through public information.
Independent Data Shows a Major Decline
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on Oct. 1 that attacks on refineries had partially achieved their objective and cost the Russian economy about 1% of gross domestic product, according to an Associated Press report.
The International Energy Agency has reported that Russian gasoline output fell about 20% compared with 2025 levels, while diesel production dropped nearly 30%. Some refineries have been struck repeatedly, and repairs to complex processing equipment can take months.
A Reuters analysis previously found that three of Russia’s six largest diesel-producing refineries had sharply reduced or halted output after drone attacks. The Kirishi refinery was offline, while the Volgograd and NORSI plants were operating at roughly one-quarter of design capacity.
Pressure on Fuel Markets
Moscow extended restrictions on diesel exports through the end of October in an effort to preserve domestic supplies. Lower Russian production is adding to a global shortage of refined fuels caused by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Ukraine calls Russian refineries legitimate military targets because they supply fuel to the armed forces and generate export revenue. Moscow has intensified strikes on Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure. Both sides say they target facilities tied to military objectives, but many battlefield and damage claims cannot be independently confirmed.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said Ukraine will continue attacking Russian refineries in response to intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.