BAKU, Azerbaijan - Public disagreements between Azerbaijan and Türkiye should not be interpreted as a change in the foundations of their alliance, regional analyst Arkady Dubnov said in an interview with 1in TV.
Dubnov was commenting on disputes surrounding Baku’s and Ankara’s relations with Israel. He said reminders of Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan during the 2020 war do not by themselves alter the current political balance because states’ interests and relationships evolve after wars.
In his assessment, sharp public exchanges should be viewed within the broader context of regional policy and measured against political and economic interests rather than rhetoric alone.
Rhetoric and Domestic Politics
Dubnov said the confrontational language used by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also serves domestic political purposes. Portraying an external opponent can help both leaders mobilize parts of their respective societies, he said.
He described the latest escalation in rhetoric as part of an existing pattern rather than a fundamentally new development.
Armenia’s Separate Tracks
Turning to Armenia, Dubnov said Yerevan’s priority should be maintaining positive momentum in its separate relationships with Azerbaijan and Türkiye while protecting its own interests in each track.
He called reconciliation through economic cooperation the most realistic path for Armenia and said U.S. support could help reinforce that process.
Dubnov expressed hope that the initialed peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan would be signed, arguing that progress toward a full accord matters more for the region than another round of public accusations among other governments.
He said Armenia’s relationship with Russia remains a more consequential source of uncertainty for Yerevan, with the future direction of ties between the two countries carrying greater weight than the public dispute between Ankara and Israel.
Sources: Vesti Baku; Arkady Dubnov interview with 1in TV.