AZE.US Four years into the war in Ukraine, the question is no longer whether the conflict has reshaped Europe’s security architecture – it has. The more pressing issue now is whether the strain of prolonged warfare is pushing Russia toward a systemic inflection point. When Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Kremlin … Read more
AZE.US Four years after Azerbaijan and Russia signed their declaration on allied cooperation, questions are growing about what that document now means in practice. While the text remains in force, the political atmosphere between Baku and Moscow has shifted markedly, shaped by the war in Ukraine, regional realignments and a series of bilateral tensions. The … Read more
AZE.US Feb. 24 marks the fourth anniversary of the war that reshaped not only Ukraine and Russia, but the entire architecture of European security. What felt like a geopolitical shock in 2022 has become a prolonged reality in 2026. Four years is long enough for governments to change, forecasts to collapse and initial emotional reactions … Read more
AZE.US As diplomatic contacts between Baku and Yerevan continue and talk of a formal peace agreement resurfaces, a more practical question is emerging: are the societies themselves ready for economic normalization? Recent street interviews in Baku suggest the answer is complicated. When asked whether they would buy or sell Armenian-made products, market vendors and customers … Read more
AZE.US When Russian forces crossed into Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin appeared to expect a rapid collapse of Kyiv. Western intelligence assessments at the time suggested Moscow envisioned a swift decapitation of the Ukrainian leadership and the installation of a compliant government. The campaign was widely described as a matter of days, not years. … Read more
AZE.US The sentencing of Ruben Vardanyan has added a new layer of strain to already complicated relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, prompting debate in Baku over whether the case could become a geopolitical lever. Vardanyan, a Russian-Armenian businessman who moved to Karabakh in 2022 and briefly held a senior position in the now-dissolved separatist administration, … Read more
AZE.US The United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East while continuing indirect talks with Iran, underscoring the fragile balance between diplomacy and deterrence in one of the world’s most volatile regions. U.S. officials say the buildup is designed to reinforce deterrence and protect American personnel and allies. However, analysts warn that … Read more
AZE.US Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus has been steadily eroding, according to Azerbaijani economist and political analyst Natig Jafarli, who argues that recent developments are not isolated incidents but part of a broader geopolitical realignment. In a recent commentary, Jafarli said the visible tensions and diplomatic frictions represent consequences rather than root causes. “The … Read more
AZE.US Azerbaijan may be preparing to tighten its legal framework governing social media platforms, following remarks by a senior Interior Ministry official calling for stronger regulation. Abulfat Rzayev, head of the Main Department for Combating Organized Crime at the Ministry of Internal Affairs, said during a panel discussion at the II Forum of Judges of … Read more
AZE.US Tensions are rising between Russia and Armenia after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan raised the possibility of nationalizing the country’s railway system or transferring its management to a third party. Russian officials responded swiftly, signaling that Moscow views any attempt to replace the current operator as unrealistic and potentially destabilizing. They warned that “poorly calculated … Read more