Analysis

AZE.US Iran is entering what may become the most consequential phase of its modern political history. The current escalation is not simply about military strikes or nuclear facilities. It is about the long-term viability of the Islamic Republic’s governing model. According to REAL party chairman Natig Jafarli, the country resembles the Soviet Union in 1986 … Read more

AZE.US The latest escalation involving Iran has reignited a familiar debate in international politics: is the world governed by principles – or by power? The U.S.-Israel military strikes against Iranian targets have been framed as deterrence and self-defense. But the broader implications go far beyond immediate security concerns. The unfolding crisis is testing the credibility … Read more

AZE.US Armenia is entering a politically sensitive period in which its strategic direction may carry consequences beyond its domestic landscape. The country’s evolving relationship with Russia and its expanding engagement with Western partners are increasingly shaping the geopolitical balance of the South Caucasus. At stake is not only electoral politics, but the long-term orientation of … Read more

By Leyla Mammadli for Aze.US The latest U.S. military strike against Iran is not merely another episode in Washington–Tehran confrontation. It signals a structural shift in regional security dynamics – one that extends well beyond the Middle East and directly affects the South Caucasus. This is not a peripheral crisis for Azerbaijan. It is a proximity event. Azerbaijan … Read more

AZE.US President Donald Trump has sharpened his rhetoric on Iran, warning that continued uranium enrichment and regional military activity could trigger decisive U.S. action. But as tensions rise, a critical question emerges: could Iran evolve into a strategic quagmire for the White House? Escalation Without a Clear Endgame Publicly, Washington’s demands remain firm: Iran must … Read more

AZE.US The prospect of a formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is increasingly viewed by regional analysts as a turning point that could reshape the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus – and significantly reduce Russia’s traditional leverage in the region. For decades, Moscow’s influence was closely tied to its role in managing – … Read more

AZE.US Russia is undergoing a post-imperial adjustment in the South Caucasus as traditional leverage mechanisms lose effectiveness, Azerbaijani political analyst Farid Shafiyev said, arguing that Moscow’s long-standing conflict-management model is eroding in the new regional environment. Speaking during a televised discussion, Shafiyev stated that for decades Russia relied on a combination of security dependency, political … Read more

AZE.US Azerbaijani military analyst Uzeyir Jafarov has cautioned that despite visible diplomatic activity in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan must avoid strategic complacency amid shifting alliances and uncertain external guarantees. Jafarov’s comments come as Baku continues its normalization process with Armenia. According to local reporting, approximately 4,500 tons of diesel fuel are expected to be transported … Read more

AZE.US The United States and Iran held another round of indirect talks in Geneva on Wednesday amid widening differences over Tehran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. negotiating position includes dismantling Iran’s three key nuclear facilities – Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – transferring enriched uranium stockpiles … Read more