The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its forecast for Azerbaijan’s average oil production in 2027 to 530,000 barrels per day, up 10,000 bpd from its September estimate.
The revised figures appear in the EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on Oct. 6. The EIA is the statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy.
The data were also reported by Report. The Russian-language counterpart was published by Vesti Baku.
2026 Forecast Unchanged at 550,000 Bpd
The EIA kept its forecast for Azerbaijan’s average 2026 production unchanged at 550,000 bpd. It raised its estimates for both the third and fourth quarters to 550,000 bpd from 540,000 bpd.
For comparison, the agency puts Azerbaijan’s average liquid-fuels production in 2025 at 570,000 bpd. The updated quarterly estimates therefore improve the near-term outlook but do not reverse the expected annual decline.
All Four 2027 Quarterly Estimates Raised
The EIA now expects output to average 540,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2027 and 530,000 bpd in the second quarter. Production is forecast at 520,000 bpd in each of the third and fourth quarters.
Each quarterly forecast is 10,000 bpd higher than the agency’s September estimate. The full-year 2027 forecast has consequently risen to 530,000 bpd from 520,000 bpd.
Revision Still Points to Lower Annual Output
The upward revision improves the expected trajectory of Azerbaijan’s oil sector, but it does not amount to year-over-year growth. Average output in 2027 would still be 20,000 bpd below the EIA’s forecast for 2026.
The effect on Azerbaijan’s budget and export earnings will depend not only on production volumes but also on oil prices and the pace of growth outside the energy sector.