Fitch Ratings expects Azerbaijan’s sovereign external assets to reach about $91 billion in 2026, while direct government debt remains below 20% of gross domestic product.
The estimates were presented on Oct. 6 at the Fitch on Azerbaijan 2026 conference in Baku. Fitch said the country’s large financial buffers continue to support its sovereign credit profile despite declining oil production and volatility in energy prices.
The figures were reported by Report and APA from the same conference. The Russian-language counterpart was published by Vesti Baku.
Assets Equal About 73% of GDP
Fitch estimates Azerbaijan’s net sovereign foreign assets, including holdings of the State Oil Fund and the Central Bank, at about 73% of GDP. Total accumulated sovereign external assets are expected to reach approximately $91 billion.
Direct government debt remains below 20% of GDP, compared with a median of 57% for countries in Fitch’s BBB rating category. About two-thirds of Azerbaijan’s debt is denominated in manats, reducing the government’s exposure to exchange-rate movements.
Fitch projects a consolidated budget surplus of about 3.7% of GDP in 2026 and a current-account surplus of roughly 11% of GDP.
Economic Growth Expected to Remain Moderate
The agency expects Azerbaijan’s economy to grow 1.6% in 2026, 2% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. Its 2026 estimate is higher than the World Bank’s latest 1.2% projection.
Erich Arispe Morales, Fitch’s senior director and head of Eastern Europe sovereign ratings, identified development of the non-oil economy as a central long-term challenge. Fitch expects the non-oil primary deficit to narrow from 18.6% of GDP last year to about 13% by 2029.
What Could Support a Rating Upgrade
Fitch said larger reserves alone would not be sufficient for an upgrade. More predictable economic policy, stronger institutions, increased private investment and further diversification would strengthen Azerbaijan’s rating prospects.
The agency also described the banking system as well-capitalized and liquid, with low risks to the sovereign balance sheet. Inflation, however, is averaging 5% to 6%, compared with about 3% among similarly rated countries.