By AZE.US
Russia’s response to the TRIPP transport project will depend in large part on its relations with the United States, political analyst Andrey Kortunov said in an interview with CivilNet.
If Moscow’s dialogue with President Donald Trump’s administration produces practical results, Russia could support the project and even seek a role in it, he said.
Kortunov, a former director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, said a further expansion of sanctions or a lack of progress in U.S. mediation over Russia’s war against Ukraine could have the opposite effect, making Moscow less receptive to American initiatives.
He suggested that TRIPP could be considered alongside the North–South transport corridor, which includes a route through Azerbaijan. Kortunov also pointed to uncertainty over the future of Russian railway operations in Armenia.
Turning to Russian – Armenian relations, Kortunov said Moscow had long treated its partnership with Yerevan as a given.
Russia now has to take account of Armenia’s efforts to develop ties with the European Union and other partners, he said, although he did not believe Yerevan’s current course necessarily meant severing all links with Moscow.
Kortunov said Armenia, as a sovereign state, should decide whether it still wants a Russian military presence. If Yerevan decides it does not, Russia would have to discuss how and when to withdraw its forces, he said. He cautioned that the process would be complex, citing Russia’s experience of withdrawing bases from Georgia.
Asked whether the war against Ukraine could end this year, Kortunov said he hoped it would but feared at least one more cycle of escalation. In his view, both sides still believe they may be able to improve their negotiating positions.
Kortunov did not rule out a further deterioration in ties between Russia and Armenia. But he argued that relations between the two countries and their people could not simply be erased.
He cited Georgia, where trade and personal contacts with Russia have continued despite the 2008 war and the absence of diplomatic relations. He said he would not want Russian – Armenian relations to follow that path.
AZE.US