A change in the political balance in the United States should not halt the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but serious disagreements remain over the TRIPP transport project.
Baku sees construction of the route as an economic necessity, while Yerevan cautions that political understandings do not yet guarantee practical implementation. If Washington withdraws from the project, Russia could gain an opening to restore influence over a strategically important section of the South Caucasus.
Those assessments were offered by Azerbaijani lawmaker and political scientist Rasim Musabekov and Armenian political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan during the PressClubs TV program “Current Topic”, according to Vesti Baku.
The two experts discussed the consequences of the U.S. midterm elections, the durability of the Washington agreements reached on Aug. 8, 2025, prospects for TRIPP and the changing role of outside powers in the South Caucasus.
Democratic Victory Unlikely to Change Washington’s Course
The Democratic Party won majorities in both chambers of Congress in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, creating new domestic constraints for President Donald Trump. The result, however, does not automatically mean a change in U.S. foreign policy.
Musabekov said Washington’s strategic interests in the South Caucasus remain broadly consistent regardless of which party controls the administration. In his view, U.S. policy traditionally seeks to prevent either Russia or Iran from establishing complete control over the region.
He also warned against exaggerating the South Caucasus’ place in global U.S. policy. American diplomatic activity is highly important to Baku and Yerevan, he said, while Washington sees the region as only one of many foreign-policy theaters.
Iskandaryan offered a similar assessment, saying even significant changes in Congress would not trigger a sharp revision of U.S. policy toward the region. The president retains wide authority in foreign affairs despite possible legislative resistance on budgetary and other issues, he said.
Both assessments suggest it would be a mistake to tie TRIPP’s future solely to the November election results.
Why Musabekov Calls TRIPP Inevitable
The sharpest disagreement came over the practical implementation of the route through Armenia.
Musabekov said the project would proceed regardless of how long the United States remains involved. His main argument is the economic need for a direct rail connection between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.
He said the route along the Araz River offers major advantages over alternatives through Georgia’s mountainous terrain. In the Soviet period, the railway carried a significant share of freight traffic. The flatter geography permits heavier trains and lower operating costs.
Musabekov also noted that the existing Baku-Tbilisi-Kars line faces capacity and terrain constraints. A second rail connection through southern Armenia therefore serves Azerbaijan’s long-term transport interests, especially as freight volumes on the Middle Corridor grow.
Azerbaijan Is Already Funding Rail Construction
Musabekov pointed to major infrastructure work Azerbaijan is financing itself. The Horadiz-Aghband railway, more than 120 kilometers long, is intended to reach the Armenian border. Rail infrastructure in Nakhchivan also requires modernization, including the restoration of about 180 kilometers of track, he said.
Against that scale, the roughly 44-kilometer section through Meghri is comparatively short, but it is crucial to the entire system. Unless Baku and Yerevan agree on transit conditions through Armenian territory, investments in the adjoining rail sections cannot realize their full economic potential.
Musabekov argued that the two sides’ mutual interest would eventually push them toward compromise.
Iskandaryan: TRIPP Remains More Political Than Practical
Iskandaryan rejected the idea that implementation is already guaranteed. The main agreements remain framework arrangements, he said, while essential technical and commercial questions are only beginning to be addressed.
“I do not consider the TRIPP agreements stable,” Iskandaryan said.
Final estimates for construction, maintenance and economic returns are still unavailable. It is not yet clear how much the infrastructure will cost to operate or how much revenue it could generate.
The operating regime is an even more difficult issue, Iskandaryan said, because Baku and Yerevan have different ideas about how the route should function. Those differences may prove more serious than a change of administration in Washington.
The Armenian expert did not dispute the economic case for restoring rail links. He agreed that the region’s geography makes such a route a natural transport corridor, but declined to predict whether it would begin operating in two years, five years or much later.
If Washington Withdraws, Moscow Could Move In
Musabekov said a reduction in U.S. involvement would not eliminate the economic need for the connection, but it could change the project’s geopolitical structure.
If the United States leaves, he said, Russia could seek to occupy the space and retain influence over regional transport links. American participation therefore matters not only for financing and construction, but also for the distribution of political influence around the route.
Musabekov stressed that Russian control is only one possible scenario, not an agreed plan to transfer the project to Moscow.
Armenia Could Gain More Than Azerbaijan
Musabekov said reopening communications could bring Armenia even greater economic benefits than Azerbaijan.
Baku’s main goal is a direct, reliable connection with Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan already has alternative routes through Iran and a rail connection with Turkey through Georgia. Armenia, by contrast, could greatly expand the geography of its foreign trade.
New lines could give Armenia rail access through Azerbaijan to Russia, Central Asia and China, while also creating additional links with Iran and Turkey. The routes could reduce Armenia’s dependence on its currently limited trade corridors.
Musabekov said it is therefore misleading to describe TRIPP solely as a concession by Yerevan to Baku. Armenia could become a full participant in regional transit projects, though potential advantages would still have to be converted into commercial results.
Technical Planning Has Begun
Azerbaijan, Armenia and the United States announced the launch of three-party technical working groups on Nov. 6, 2026. Initial work focuses on transport infrastructure and electricity transmission, with officials and technical specialists from all three countries involved.
The groups are expected to coordinate the parameters of future links, connect them with existing transport networks and prepare subsequent stages. Their creation, however, does not mean design work is complete or construction has begun. Iskandaryan emphasized the distinction between a political decision and a practical result.
Can Economic Interdependence Secure Peace?
The two experts also differed over whether economic cooperation can make peace more durable.
Musabekov said broader transport and trade ties would gradually create mutual interests between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
“The stronger the interdependence between Armenia and Azerbaijan becomes, the stronger peace will be between our countries and in the region,” he said.
Iskandaryan warned against overstating that factor. Armenia and Azerbaijan were tightly integrated into the Soviet economy before the Karabakh conflict, he noted, yet their economic interdependence did not prevent political confrontation.
Railways and open trade routes alone are therefore insufficient for lasting peace, he said. Political disputes and humanitarian issues must also be addressed, while conditions for long-term interaction between the two societies must be created. Otherwise, even commercially attractive projects could become hostage to another political crisis.
A More Independent South Caucasus
Musabekov said Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia are gradually gaining greater autonomy in foreign-policy decision-making. Baku has shown it can defend its interests in relations with Russia, Iran and Turkey, while Yerevan is trying to diversify its foreign ties and reduce dependence on its previous security framework. Georgia is also seeking to shape external partnerships around its own priorities.
The participants agreed that the South Caucasus has not yet used the full potential of its location between Europe and Asia because decades of political conflict constrained transport development.
Iskandaryan said political settlement is necessary to unlock that potential. Musabekov placed greater emphasis on mutually beneficial economic projects as a way to strengthen peace gradually.
The central question is therefore no longer simply whether TRIPP will retain Trump’s support, but whether Azerbaijan and Armenia can agree on the practical terms of implementation.
Washington can provide political backing, financing and technical participation. Without agreements between Baku and Yerevan, however, even a promising transport route will remain on paper.