Western intelligence services estimate that Iran retains at least 1,700 ballistic missiles and can produce about 50 of them a month despite sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes on its military infrastructure.
The figures were provided by a Western official familiar with military intelligence assessments, according to Vesti Baku. Tehran has not confirmed the numbers, which remain approximate.
Production at About Half of Prewar Level
Current output is estimated at roughly half the prewar rate. Before the conflict began on Feb. 28, Israel assessed Iran’s ballistic-missile stockpile at about 2,500.
The size of the operational arsenal is difficult to determine because the prewar inventory, the number of missiles used in combat and the damage to factories and underground sites are not known with certainty.
Iran is also believed to possess thousands of Shahed-family attack drones. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released footage on Nov. 10 of a new underground facility it called a “missile city.”
Procurement Continues Through Covert Networks
The new assessment differs from Washington’s claims that Iran’s military industry was severely damaged. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth previously said a significant part of the country’s industrial base had been destroyed.
A Reuters investigation found that a network linked to Iran’s Defense Ministry, comprising more than 5,000 covert entities, continued purchasing foreign components for missiles, drones and launchers.
At least $2 billion in equipment and materials has reportedly been imported through the system since January 2025.
Iran’s remaining inventory and its ability to replenish it increase the risk of renewed escalation around the country, the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. facilities in the region. The intelligence estimate does not establish that every missile counted is ready for operational use.