The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Azerbaijan’s average oil production to decline from 550,000 barrels per day in 2026 to 530,000 bpd in 2027.
The forecast appears in the November Short-Term Energy Outlook, published by the EIA on Nov. 10, according to Vesti Baku. The figures are unchanged from the agency’s October assessment.
Quarterly Decline Expected Through 2027
The EIA expects Azerbaijan’s oil production to average 540,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2027 and 530,000 bpd in the second quarter.
Output is then forecast to fall to 520,000 bpd in both the third and fourth quarters.
For 2026, the agency kept its full-year forecast at an average of 550,000 bpd. Production is estimated at 560,000 bpd in the first quarter and 550,000 bpd in each of the remaining three quarters.
Output Would Be About 7% Below 2025
Azerbaijan produced an average of about 570,000 bpd of liquid fuels in 2025, according to the EIA figures.
If the November forecast proves accurate, average output in 2027 would be about 7% lower than the 2025 level and 20,000 bpd below the projected 2026 average.
The November report is a new monthly update rather than a revision to the October forecast. In October, the EIA had raised its 2027 estimate to 530,000 bpd from 520,000 bpd in the September outlook. The November edition leaves that revised figure unchanged.
Forecasts May Change With New Data
The EIA completed the calculations for its November outlook on Nov. 5. The projections could therefore change in response to new production data, decisions by oil-market participants or events occurring after that date.
The forecast should not be read as a report of actual future production. Azerbaijan’s eventual output will depend on field performance, maintenance schedules, investment decisions and broader oil-market conditions.