AZE.US
Russia is gradually losing influence in the South Caucasus, while Azerbaijan is strengthening its position as a regional transit, energy and political hub, according to Kazakh political analyst Farhad Kasenov.
Kasenov, head of the A+Analytics research center, made the comments in an interview with the YouTube channel “Modern Conversation With Rasim Babayev.”
He argued that Russia’s war against Ukraine has weakened Moscow’s economic and military capacity and reduced its ability to shape developments across the former Soviet region.
“Russia is losing its influence in the near abroad and across the post-Soviet space,” Kasenov said. “The war, which was probably intended to strengthen Russia’s influence, has instead weakened it significantly.”
According to the analyst, the former Karabakh conflict once allowed Moscow to keep both Azerbaijan and Armenia within its political orbit.
That mechanism has largely disappeared following Azerbaijan’s restoration of its territorial integrity, he said.
Kasenov added that Azerbaijan and Armenia are now moving toward a more sustainable peace, while the South Caucasus is becoming less dependent on Russia.
At the same time, Azerbaijan’s importance is growing through the Middle Corridor, which connects China and Central Asia with Europe through the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
Kasenov said Moscow is gradually losing its historic role as a transit gateway between East and West.
“Moscow is turning into a logistical dead end,” he said. “When there is no transit, its role declines.”
In his view, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and other countries along the Middle Corridor are increasingly taking over the transit function once performed by Russia.
Azerbaijan Becomes More Important To Europe
Kasenov said Azerbaijan is also gaining strategic importance as a route for energy resources, raw materials and Kazakh uranium exports to Europe.
Kazakhstan accounts for roughly 40% of global uranium production, but as a landlocked country it depends on external transport routes.
Part of that trade can move across the Caspian Sea and through Azerbaijan, making Baku an important partner for France and other European countries with major nuclear energy industries.
“If you want access to Kazakh uranium, you need good relations not only with Kazakhstan, but also with Azerbaijan,” Kasenov said.
He argued that economic interests could push more pragmatic political forces in France toward improving relations with Baku despite existing disagreements.
Europe is also increasingly interested in Azerbaijani and Kazakh energy supplies and in expanding the capacity of the Middle Corridor, he added.
Kasenov said the interests of China and the European Union largely overlap in this area. China needs a reliable land route to European markets, while Europe is looking for alternative transport corridors and sources of energy and raw materials.
As a result, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are no longer simply countries located between larger powers, he said. They are becoming central players in a new transport and economic system taking shape across Eurasia.
AZE.US