AZE.US
As tensions around Iran continue to fuel concern across the region, Azerbaijani analyst Natig Jafarli says Baku should remain ready for any scenario, warning that instability itself creates long-term security risks for neighboring states.
Jafarli said the danger for Azerbaijan does exist, but argued that Iran is unlikely to place Baku at the top of any priority target list at this stage. In his view, Tehran is currently more focused on other fronts, including areas closer to direct military confrontation and the broader regional standoff involving U.S. forces and Israel.
He said one of the core problems is that Iran’s behavior no longer appears fully predictable through a single, centralized chain of command. According to Jafarli, that makes the situation more dangerous, because dealing with a fragmented decision-making structure is harder than dealing with one clear political center capable of giving guarantees.
At the same time, he noted that hostile rhetoric toward Azerbaijan from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other Iranian-linked circles has been visible for years, meaning the risk factor cannot be ignored.
Still, Jafarli said it would be illogical to assume that Azerbaijan is among Iran’s first-choice targets. He argued that Tehran has more immediate pressure points nearby, including U.S. military assets in the region and ongoing military escalation elsewhere.
He also described Iran’s current approach as an attempt to spread chaos across a wider geography – from Gulf states to global energy and logistics routes – in the hope that economic pressure and rising uncertainty will force outside actors to push Washington toward de-escalation.
But in his assessment, that approach looks more tactical than strategic. Rather than weakening the United States, he said, it may actually strengthen Washington’s position by reinforcing the perceived need for an American military presence in the region.
Jafarli also pointed to a financial dimension. In periods of instability, he said, capital tends to move toward the United States as a safe haven, meaning Iran’s actions may unintentionally help strengthen the U.S. economically as well as strategically.
He further argued that Gulf Arab states appear to be deliberately avoiding direct entry into the conflict. In his view, this may reflect a longer-term calculation: if major political or systemic change eventually takes place in Iran, those countries will want to preserve room to build relations with whatever comes next.
The broader takeaway, he said, is that Azerbaijan should stay alert and prepared, not because it is the most likely immediate target, but because regional turbulence can quickly produce unpredictable consequences.