By AZE.US
Armenia’s prolonged wait for visa-free travel with the European Union risks weakening Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s political position and undermining his strategy of moving the country away from Russia, Azerbaijani analyst Lyaman Nazarova said.
Speaking to the Daily Europe Online YouTube channel, the CASPIA Center expert said reports that Armenia could be required to introduce visas for Russian citizens as part of its rapprochement with the EU may have a genuine basis.
According to Nazarova, the European Union sometimes imposes conditions on partner countries that cannot realistically be implemented in a short period.
“Europe is effectively shooting Pashinyan in the foot because his entire current strategy is built around rapprochement with the European Union and Armenia’s gradual departure from Russia,” she said.
Armenia Faces a Difficult Choice
Nazarova described Armenia as being at a geopolitical crossroads. Yerevan can continue moving toward Europe, despite the slow pace and uncertain outcome of that process, or gradually restore closer relations with Moscow.
She argued that Armenia remains heavily dependent on Russia and could face significant economic costs if relations deteriorate further. At the same time, the EU has so far offered political support and broad promises without delivering the rapid integration results expected by some sections of Armenian society.
Even visa liberalization would not guarantee that Armenia’s European course becomes irreversible, Nazarova said. Its future would depend on the political decisions and domestic legitimacy of the country’s leadership.
Russia, meanwhile, is using Armenia’s economic dependence as leverage, she added. Moscow’s demands for clarity over Yerevan’s future in the Eurasian Economic Union could force Armenian voters to confront the potential cost of breaking with Russia.
If withdrawal from the Russian-led bloc results in economic losses, public dissatisfaction could ultimately be directed against Pashinyan’s government, according to the analyst.
Nazarova also described Europe’s policy toward Armenia as inconsistent. France has expanded its political and defense cooperation with Yerevan, while the EU as a whole remains cautious about further enlargement and decisions that could deepen its confrontation with Moscow.
No Breakthrough in Ukraine Talks
Addressing contacts between U.S. representatives, Moscow and Kyiv, Nazarova said recent negotiations had not produced a major breakthrough but had revealed a change in Washington’s approach.
The United States previously relied heavily on sanctions and efforts to isolate Russia. Washington is now increasingly trying to demonstrate what Moscow could gain from halting hostilities and normalizing relations with the West, she said.
Nazarova argued that a comprehensive peace agreement remains unlikely in the immediate future. A temporary halt to active fighting may be a more realistic first step.
“Both sides remain far apart,” she said. “There are red lines that neither Kyiv nor Moscow is currently prepared to cross.”
A ceasefire could nevertheless create a period of relative stability and allow the parties to begin discussing more fundamental disagreements, she added.
Nazarova said President Donald Trump also needs a visible diplomatic achievement after pledging to end costly foreign conflicts. Even a limited agreement could be presented to American voters as progress.
However, she argued that most Americans assess the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East primarily through their economic consequences. Rising oil and gasoline prices are likely to influence U.S. political sentiment more strongly than the details of diplomatic negotiations.
France’s South Caucasus Policy
Turning to relations between Azerbaijan and France, Nazarova said Paris was attempting to secure a larger role in the South Caucasus as Russian influence in the region declined.
She questioned whether France could contribute constructively to the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process while maintaining what Baku considers a one-sided position in support of Yerevan.
“If a country wants to participate in normalization and present itself as a mediator, it must at least be objective,” Nazarova said.
She argued that France frequently challenges the Azerbaijani government’s policies while supporting Armenia without applying the same level of scrutiny to developments there.
According to Nazarova, this imbalance prevents France from being regarded in Azerbaijan as a credible mediator and continues to complicate relations between Baku and Paris.
AZE.US