Armenia’s effort to adopt a new constitution could trigger another parliamentary election as Yerevan simultaneously faces Russian pressure over trade, energy and its future in the Eurasian Economic Union.
The intertwined risks were discussed on CivilNet’s weekly review program by journalist Arshaluis Mgdesyan.
The discussion followed an October 22 statement by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who raised the possibility of an early election if the government cannot secure enough opposition support to advance a new constitution.
A New Vote as Leverage
Mgdesyan said Pashinyan’s message appears directed both at domestic opponents and at Azerbaijan. To the opposition, the prime minister is signaling that he is prepared to seek a new public mandate. To Baku, he is emphasizing that constitutional change must pass through Armenia’s parliamentary process.
Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party does not control the two-thirds majority needed to initiate constitutional amendments or send fundamental constitutional provisions to a referendum. CivilNet has separately documented that shortfall.
Azerbaijan has said it will not sign the final peace treaty until Armenia removes constitutional language that Baku interprets as a territorial claim. Yerevan rejects that interpretation but says it intends to pursue a new constitution as part of its domestic political program.
Mgdesyan said peace with Azerbaijan remains one of Pashinyan’s central political commitments. An early election could be intended to overcome parliamentary resistance, but it would also expose the governing party to a fresh electoral risk because a larger majority is not guaranteed.
Building Peace Through Transport and Trade
Armenia may meanwhile try to persuade Azerbaijan that practical cooperation can deepen before constitutional reform is completed, Mgdesyan said.
He cited the planned Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, the opening of transport links, rail connections with Turkey and the use of regional routes by both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Regular contact and economic ties could create a durable interest in preserving peace, he said. Armenian debate nevertheless continues over whether a constitutional change would lead directly to a treaty or be followed by additional Azerbaijani demands.
Russia’s Gas and Market Leverage
The program also examined a report submitted by representatives of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on the possible consequences of suspending application of the EAEU treaty to Armenia.
The report estimated that suspension could reduce Armenia’s gross domestic product by 15.6%, raise inflation by 14.9 percentage points and cut consumption by 14.6%. It also projected a 55.6% drop in total trade with EAEU states and an increase in the Russian gas price from $177.50 to $300 per 1,000 cubic meters.
Mgdesyan described the document as a political signal about the possible cost of further Armenian distance from the bloc, while questioning whether all of its headline estimates capture the structure of Armenia’s economy. A significant share of recent trade growth came from re-exports, he said, and a decline in those flows is not identical to losing markets for Armenian-made goods.
He said Russian gas pricing and restrictions on access to the Russian market represent more serious pressure points. Armenian businesses may adapt and seek alternatives, but the transition would be difficult and costly because no full substitute for the Russian market currently exists.
The discussion was first reported in Russian by Vesti Baku.