AZE.US
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan can no longer count on unconditional support from the U.S. Democratic Party and influential Armenian lobbying groups associated with it, according to Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade.
Speaking on the Echo Baku YouTube channel, Velizade argued that preserving the peace framework established under President Donald Trump is now in Pashinyan’s own political interest.
“Pashinyan must hold on to Trump with both hands because the peace agreement was initialed under Trump, and the peace process moved forward under Trump,” Velizade said.
The analyst rejected suggestions that a future Democratic administration in Washington could help Yerevan revise the current peace agenda.
According to Velizade, Pashinyan’s relationship with influential sections of the Armenian diaspora in the United States and Europe has deteriorated considerably. A change of administration in Washington, he said, would therefore not automatically restore Yerevan’s former political connections.
“His reputation in the West, particularly among the Armenian diaspora in France and the United States, has been damaged. He has nowhere else to go,” Velizade said.
He linked the tensions to the Armenian government’s confrontation with the opposition and the Armenian Apostolic Church, which retain support among parts of the diaspora. In his assessment, those groups are unlikely to forgive Pashinyan for attempting to limit their influence over Armenia’s domestic political system.
Armenia Caught Between Russia and the EU
Turning to Armenia’s relations with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union, Velizade said Yerevan is attempting to preserve its economic ties with Moscow while continuing its political rapprochement with the European Union.
“From Pashinyan’s perspective, he wants to move toward the European Union, but doing so is currently impossible. Armenia has no practical alternative today,” he said.
Velizade noted that Armenia’s economy remains closely connected to Russia. Citing trade figures, he said Russia accounts for approximately 38% of Armenia’s foreign trade, while the combined share of Eurasian Economic Union countries exceeds 40%.
In his view, Armenia cannot quickly replace the Russian market with European destinations.
“Talk about selling Armenian strawberries in France or Jermuk mineral water in Greece is not serious. Replacing the Russian market on that scale is practically impossible,” he said.
Velizade argued that Pashinyan is trying to buy time and find a compromise that would preserve economic cooperation with Russia without sacrificing political support from Brussels.
The EU, he said, is aware that Armenia has limited room for maneuver economically but continues to back Pashinyan’s political course as part of its broader confrontation with Moscow.
Peace Agenda Has Taken Hold
Commenting on the first anniversary of the Washington agreements between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Velizade described them as an important political milestone.
Although the peace treaty has only been initialed and not formally signed, he noted that the Azerbaijani-Armenian border has remained calm and that contacts between the two countries have gradually expanded.
Velizade also pointed to the emergence of officially recorded bilateral trade, meetings between the border delimitation commissions and new formats of direct contact between representatives of Baku and Yerevan.
“The peace agenda has already taken hold. All external stakeholders support it – Russia, the European Union and the United States,” he said.
The analyst expects negotiations to intensify in the fall following the completion of Armenia’s electoral and post-election political transition.
Velizade also cited what he described as tangible movement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP. He referred to increased U.S. funding, visits by technical specialists and preparations for physical construction.
“Words alone are not enough. Concrete action is needed because it is precisely such action that will change the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape,” Velizade concluded.
AZE.US