AZE.US
The Washington agreements of August 8, 2025, did more than formalize a new reality between Azerbaijan and Armenia: they changed how the international community views the entire South Caucasus, Azerbaijani political analyst Ahmad Alili said.
Speaking on the Novosti Kavkaza YouTube channel, Alili said US participation in the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, known as TRIPP, sent a strong signal to foreign investors and geopolitical actors.
“The presence of the United States in this project sent a very powerful message to international players and investors: there are established rules of the game in the region,” Alili said. “America acts as a guarantor that these rules will be observed.”
According to the analyst, Washington is presenting the South Caucasus as a more predictable and secure destination for long-term investment.
“There is a certain assurance that this is a region where investment is possible and where there is peace,” he said.
A Region Seeking to Move Beyond Conflict
For decades, Alili noted, the South Caucasus was perceived internationally primarily as a conflict zone carrying a high level of political and security risk. That reputation discouraged companies and international organizations from expanding their presence.
The Washington summit and the subsequent public contacts between Azerbaijani and Armenian officials have begun to alter that image, he said.
“Armenia and Azerbaijan have finally resolved their problems,” Alili said. “This promotes the idea that the South Caucasus is no longer a region of conflict, but a region of peace. Everyone benefits from that.”
In his assessment, the August 8 agreements gave the South Caucasus a new international status and opened the way for greater economic engagement.
Alili pointed to growing US interest in technology and artificial intelligence projects in Armenia as an example. He argued that such investment would have been far less likely without the political framework established in Washington.
The new regional environment has also expanded Armenia’s ability to pursue a more independent foreign policy, he said. Reduced tensions with Azerbaijan have given Yerevan more room to distance itself from groups seeking to preserve the old model of confrontation.
“As paradoxical as it may sound, the new reality, created in part as a result of Azerbaijan’s actions, gave Armenia additional resources to conduct a more independent foreign policy,” Alili said.
Better communication between Baku and Yerevan is also making it easier to address disputes that would previously have risked triggering a broader crisis, he added.
Rare Earths Becoming the New Oil
Alili also discussed TRIPP’s economic and strategic importance for Washington. In his view, oil no longer determines global politics to the same extent that it did for much of the 20th century.
Competition between the United States and China over rare earth minerals and other critical resources is increasingly taking its place. These materials are essential for electronics, batteries, renewable-energy technologies and advanced weapons systems.
“Rare earth metals are becoming what oil was for the past 70 or 80 years,” Alili said.
Viewed from that perspective, TRIPP could become part of a wider transportation network carrying strategic resources from Central Asia and the South Caucasus to global markets without placing those shipments under the control of rival powers.
“TRIPP, in this context, is essentially a project intended to ensure that rare earth elements from Central Asia and the South Caucasus can reach global markets freely,” he said, describing this as a broad geopolitical interpretation of the initiative.
Alili stressed that the route also has a peace-building role. It is designed to support normalization between Azerbaijan and Armenia while simultaneously advancing Washington’s economic and strategic interests.
A Different Kind of US Return
The analyst said the emerging American role in the South Caucasus differs from US support for the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline in the 1990s and early 2000s.
At the time, Washington’s priority was to help Caspian oil reach international markets through a route independent of Russia and Iran. Today, the agenda is broader and includes transportation corridors, technology, investment and access to strategic resources.
“American investors understand that they need to remain in the region, invest here and work with local governments,” Alili said. “That is what the return of the United States means.”
He also argued that relations between Baku and Washington are moving beyond a narrowly bilateral agenda. Azerbaijan’s ties with Türkiye and Israel, its location alongside Iran and its role in trans-Eurasian connectivity have increased its importance to US regional policy.
At the same time, Alili cautioned against Azerbaijan rushing to join emerging military or political blocs.
Baku has so far succeeded in maintaining close relations with both Ankara and Tel Aviv, he said, preserving its ability to maneuver among competing centers of power. In his assessment, that flexibility remains one of Azerbaijan’s main foreign-policy advantages as a new regional order takes shape.
AZE.US