AZE.US
The United States is unlikely to launch a ground operation in Iran because such a campaign would carry the risk of heavy military casualties and serious domestic political consequences, Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade said.
Velizade, who heads the South Caucasus Political Scientists’ Club, made the remarks during an interview with the Daily Europe Online YouTube channel.
He said the conflict surrounding Iran had become another example of a war that was far easier to begin than to end.
“There was no shortage of predictions that Iran would not last even several weeks. Yet we can see that the war continues,” Velizade said.
The analyst dismissed media speculation that Washington could be considering deploying ground forces to Iran.
“What ground operation are we talking about? It cannot even be on the agenda,” he said. “If the United States physically enters Iran, the number of military casualties would be enormous. That would inevitably affect the political situation inside the United States.”
Velizade argued that the latest escalation was more likely intended to raise the stakes in a continuing negotiating process. Intensified military pressure, he said, did not necessarily mean that all diplomatic contacts had ended.
“When escalation increases, the side driving it is usually trying to strengthen its negotiating position,” Velizade said. “The absence of public negotiations does not mean there are no negotiations at all. Communication channels most likely remain open.”
He also pointed to the cautious positioning of Western naval forces in the region. According to Velizade, U.S. carrier groups are operating at a distance that reduces their exposure to possible Iranian attacks rather than moving directly into the combat zone.
The approach reflects the changing economics of modern warfare, he said. Relatively inexpensive Iranian drones or small attack boats could inflict significant damage on warships worth billions of dollars, creating enormous repair and replacement costs.
“The American vessels are positioned some distance away from the fighting,” Velizade said. “They continue to perform their operational functions, but they are trying to avoid unnecessary direct exposure.”
The analyst concluded that Washington would most likely continue relying on air and naval power, economic pressure and indirect negotiations instead of committing ground forces to a potentially prolonged and costly campaign inside Iran.
AZE.US