AZE.US
Azerbaijan may be interested in launching the TRIPP route through Armenia while avoiding a formal peace treaty and a broader reopening of regional borders, according to Benyamin Poghosyan, a senior analyst at the APRI Armenia think tank.
Speaking on CivilNet’s YouTube channel, Poghosyan argued that the transport project connecting mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan should be viewed separately from a wider regional normalization process involving Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Legal work on TRIPP is moving forward, he said, including preparations for a development company that would oversee the project in Armenia. But no major construction has started on either the railway or highway components, and it remains unclear whether physical work will begin in early 2027 even if the legal process is completed by the end of 2026.
Poghosyan said the project also faces geopolitical uncertainty because both Russia and Iran have expressed concern over a larger U.S. role in South Caucasus transport infrastructure.
The broader normalization process, however, remains largely frozen.
Azerbaijan continues to link the signing of a peace treaty to constitutional changes in Armenia, while Turkey has tied the full opening of its border with Armenia to an agreement between Baku and Yerevan.
Poghosyan described the situation as a political deadlock with three possible outcomes: Armenia changes its constitution, Azerbaijan agrees to sign a peace treaty without those changes, or Turkey opens its border with Armenia before a final Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement.
The last two options, he said, would likely require stronger involvement from the United States or the European Union.
One possible scenario could involve Washington making Armenian-Turkish normalization part of a wider deal with Ankara, potentially linked to fighter jet sales, sanctions relief or other bilateral issues. But Poghosyan noted that the Armenian-Turkish track remains a secondary issue in U.S.-Turkey relations.
His central argument was that Baku may benefit from keeping the current uncertainty in place.
Under that model, Azerbaijan could secure a direct route to Nakhchivan and Turkey, maintain limited economic ties with Armenia and still avoid a fully institutionalized peace. Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish borders could remain closed even as Azerbaijani trains move through Armenian territory.
For Baku, Poghosyan said, that would be a workable arrangement.
He argued that the absence of a peace treaty allows Armenia to remain partially isolated and leaves the region in a state that is closer to peace than war, but still without binding guarantees.
That arrangement, he suggested, could last for years.
Poghosyan also said Russia’s leverage over Azerbaijan has weakened sharply since the disappearance of the Karabakh factor and the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers. At the same time, Moscow increasingly needs Azerbaijan as a transport link to Iran, giving Baku more room to pursue an independent and at times openly critical line toward Russia.
He pointed to President Ilham Aliyev’s statements in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and his sharper tone toward Moscow as signs of the changing balance.
“For now, Russia is probably forced to swallow all of this,” Poghosyan said.
Turkey may also find the current model acceptable. TRIPP would give Ankara a shorter route to Azerbaijan through Nakhchivan without requiring Turkey to fully open its border with Armenia.
Poghosyan said it is possible that Ankara and Baku are effectively following a coordinated approach in which transport links move forward while peace and border normalization remain postponed.
In that scenario, TRIPP advances, Azerbaijan gains access to Nakhchivan and Turkey, and Armenia remains connected to the regional economy only on limited terms.
AZE.US