Analysis

Market Test for Peace: Are Azerbaijanis Ready for Trade With Armenia?

AZE.US As diplomatic contacts between Baku and Yerevan continue and talk of a formal peace agreement resurfaces, a more practical question is emerging: are the...

From Four Days To Four Years: How Putin’s Ukraine Plan Became A Strategic Quagmire

AZE.US When Russian forces crossed into Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin appeared to expect a rapid collapse of Kyiv. Western intelligence assessments at the...

Baku And Moscow: Could The Vardanyan Factor Escalate Tensions?

AZE.US The sentencing of Ruben Vardanyan has added a new layer of strain to already complicated relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, prompting debate in Baku...

US Steps Up Pressure on Iran as Talks Continue Amid Military Buildup

AZE.US The United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East while continuing indirect talks with Iran, underscoring the fragile balance between diplomacy...

Moscow Losing Ground in the South Caucasus: What’s Behind the Shift and What Comes Next?

AZE.US Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus has been steadily eroding, according to Azerbaijani economist and political analyst Natig Jafarli, who argues that recent developments...

Social Media Under Scrutiny: Azerbaijan Signals New Regulatory Framework

AZE.US Azerbaijan may be preparing to tighten its legal framework governing social media platforms, following remarks by a senior Interior Ministry official calling for stronger...

Russia Warns Armenia Over Railway Control as Yerevan Considers Strategic Shift

AZE.US Tensions are rising between Russia and Armenia after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan raised the possibility of nationalizing the country’s railway system or transferring its...

Strait of Hormuz at Risk: What a Blockade Would Mean for Oil and the Global Economy

AZE.US Tensions between the United States and Iran have renewed concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that handles roughly...

Washington Launches “Peace Council”: New Architecture or an Attempt to Regain Control?

AZE.US The first session of the so-called “Peace Council,” an initiative promoted by President Donald Trump’s administration, was held in the U.S. capital this week,...

Iran and Russia Launch Joint Naval Drills Near Strategic Strait of Hormuz

AZE.US Iran and Russia have begun joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman, according to Iranian state media and...

Iran Strike Risk Seen as Low but Not Impossible

AZE.US Azerbaijan seeks neutrality as regional tensions raise concerns over spillover threats and potential refugee flows. The possibility of Iranian missiles reaching Azerbaijani territory in the...

When Empathy Fades: A Quiet Social Shift in Azerbaijan

AZE.USA Across much of the world, people are speaking more about loneliness, digital isolation, and the slow erosion of everyday empathy. Azerbaijan is not immune...

Geneva on Two Fronts: Dialogue With Iran and a Conversation About War

AZE.US Geneva has once again become a diplomatic crossroads. Within the same city and nearly the same hours, two separate переговорных трека unfolded: one focused...

Peace Between Baku and Yerevan May Come Faster Than Reconciliation Between People

AZE.US Diplomatic momentum between Azerbaijan and Armenia is steadily increasing. Negotiations continue, technical issues are discussed, and the outline of a possible peace agreement appears...

Russia Has Already Lost – And the Post-Soviet Space Knows It

AZE.US Wars do not always end with surrender. Sometimes they freeze. Sometimes they fade into negotiations that look like compromise. But there is another outcome...

Starlink in Armenia Signals a New Phase in the South Caucasus

AZE.US The reported delivery of more than 100 Starlink terminals to Armenia may appear, at first glance, to be a technical or humanitarian step aimed...

U.S. Military Support to Armenia and Azerbaijan Raises Questions Over Regional Balance

AZE.US Recent U.S. security engagement with both Armenia and Azerbaijan has renewed debate over the military and strategic balance in the South Caucasus. Washington’s reported plan...

After Munich, One Thing Became Clear: Europe Will Have To Defend Itself

Aze.US The latest Munich Security Conference underscored a turning point for Europe: the post-World War II security model built around U.S. guarantees is weakening, forcing...

Armenia’s Strategic Shift Raises Risks as Yerevan Moves to Reduce Reliance on Russia

Aze.US Armenia’s deepening engagement with the United States is evolving from diplomatic outreach into a potential strategic realignment, a shift that could reshape power dynamics...

After Munich, No Real Normalization Seen Between Russia and Azerbaijan

Aze.US Tensions between Moscow and Baku remain unresolved despite recent diplomatic contacts, Ukrainian political analyst Vitaliy Portnikov said, pointing to continued disputes linked to the...

Russia Is Losing the South Caucasus

Aze.US Recent diplomatic activity surrounding Azerbaijan and Armenia suggests a structural shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus, a region long shaped...

Azerbaijan’s Strategic Role Expands in 2026 as Energy, Transit Corridors and Security Converge

Aze.US Azerbaijan’s regional position is increasingly defined not only by energy exports but also by its expanding role in transport connectivity, logistics corridors and geopolitical...

Iran Faces Slow Internal Shift Rather Than Sudden Collapse

Aze.US Rising pressure on Iran’s economy and political system is fueling renewed debate about the country’s future. Yet current trends point less to an imminent...

Can Azerbaijan Really Make Global Platforms Pay?

Aze.US A proposed digital tax reform aims to bring foreign online service providers into Azerbaijan’s VAT system. The real question is not legal design -...

The South Caucasus Between Negative And Positive Peace: The Economic Architecture Of Transition

By Leyla Mammadli for Aze.US The South Caucasus has entered a post-war phase. Yet this phase cannot fully be described as peace; rather, it represents...

Russia Is Losing Its Periphery While the War Drags On

Aze.US Nearly four years after the start of the war in Ukraine, the strategic question is no longer what Moscow hoped to gain, but what...

After the Wars: Why the South Caucasus Is Entering a Structural Transition

Aze.US Recent U.S. diplomatic engagement in the South Caucasus is often interpreted through the narrow lens of individual visits or short-term regional crises. A more durable...

The United States Is Not Returning to the South Caucasus – It Is Replacing the Old Order

Aze.US The recent diplomatic activity surrounding U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s engagement in the South Caucasus is widely framed as routine outreach. In reality, it...

What the United States Is Changing in the South Caucasus

Aze.US The signing of a U.S.–Azerbaijan strategic charter signals a broader shift in regional security, transit, and geopolitical alignment. The visit of U.S. Vice President JD...

Why 2026 Could Become a Turning Point for the South Caucasus

Aze.US The geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus is entering a phase that analysts increasingly describe as transitional rather than merely tense. After several years marked...

Language, Identity, and Power in the Post-Soviet Space

Aze.US Why the Debate in Azerbaijan Is Bigger Than It Seems A sharp public statement by Azerbaijani journalist Azer Hasrat has reignited a familiar but unresolved...

Israel-Iran Tensions and Their Regional Impact

Aze.US Rising tensions between Israel and Iran have once again pushed the Middle East toward a fragile strategic threshold. What began as a long-standing confrontation...

What the Azerbaijan–US Charter Really Changes

Aze.US Seven consequences that matter more than diplomatic language The Strategic Partnership Charter signed in Baku between Azerbaijan and the United States may look like another...

Women Aren’t Rejecting Love. They’re Rejecting Unsafe Marriage

Aze.US When loneliness feels safer than family Across many societies, including Azerbaijan, more women are choosing to stay single. This is not a rebellion against love...

Why Vance’s Trip Could Shift the Balance of Power in the Region

Aze.US The planned visit by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to Baku and Yerevan has quickly become one of the most closely watched geopolitical developments...

The South Caucasus After Conflict: Why Stability Is Becoming the Region’s Most Valuable Resource

Aze.US For much of the past three decades, the South Caucasus has been discussed primarily through the language of conflict. Borders, ceasefires, fragile negotiations, and...

Azerbaijan Between Power Centers: Why Strategic Balance Is Becoming Its Main Asset

Aze.US In global geopolitics, visibility rarely arrives suddenly. More often, countries move quietly-adjusting alliances, diversifying partnerships, and building relevance step by step until the shift...

Why Azerbaijan’s Strategic Importance Is Growing in 2026

Aze.US In recent years, Azerbaijan has moved from being viewed as a peripheral post-Soviet state to becoming a country of growing strategic relevance across Eurasia....

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