AZE.US
Russia and Azerbaijan are unlikely to allow their relationship to break down completely despite recurring disputes, according to Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at MGIMO University and editor-in-chief of the journal International Analytics.
Speaking in an interview with the Echo Baku YouTube channel, Markedonov said ties between Moscow and Baku often resemble a swing, with periods of cooperation interrupted by new tensions.
He said the two countries face several structural disagreements, with the war in Ukraine remaining one of the most serious sources of friction.
According to Markedonov, Azerbaijan wants to maintain relations with Russia while preserving its independent ties with Ukraine, Turkey, Iran, Israel and other partners.
Commenting on strikes against facilities linked to Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR in Ukraine and Baku’s subsequent protest note, he said the episode should not automatically be seen as a continuation of the earlier crisis surrounding the AZAL plane crash.
“This is a new agenda. Different things can happen in relations. Even strategic allies have disagreements,” Markedonov said.
He predicted that similar “mini-crises” would continue to emerge, but argued that neither Moscow nor Baku wants bilateral ties to “fall into an abyss.”
Markedonov said the main principles of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy have remained largely unchanged. Baku continues to balance between competing centers of power and reacts strongly to what it sees as outside interference in issues involving sovereignty and territorial integrity.
He also said Azerbaijan’s foreign policy has become less centered on Karabakh since Baku restored full control over the region, although the government remains determined to prevent any challenge to the new status quo.
In his view, Azerbaijan is unlikely to burn bridges with Russia because doing so would run against its national interests.
Russia may remain important to Baku as a counterweight during possible tensions with the West or Iran and as part of Azerbaijan’s broader effort to maintain balance in relations with Turkey.
At the same time, Markedonov said Azerbaijan is expected to deepen cooperation with China and expand its role in transport routes linking Asia and Europe.
AZE.US