AZE.US
July is approaching, but sour green plums, known locally as alcha, are still not getting noticeably cheaper in Azerbaijan.
The fruit, one of the most popular seasonal products in early summer, is being sold in markets and retail outlets from around 7 manats (about $4.10) per kilogram.
In a normal season, prices usually fall as more fruit reaches the market. This year, however, shoppers are seeing a different picture. Alcha remains expensive, and many buyers are asking whether prices will drop in the coming weeks.
Economist Natig Jafarli told Demokrat.az that the main reason is unfavorable weather.
According to him, unstable weather in recent months has affected agricultural production and reduced the yield of several fruits.
“Unfavorable weather has had a direct impact on productivity in agriculture, and as a result, the overall volume of production has declined. Natural factors play a major role, especially during the growing and harvesting periods. Weather conditions that differ from the norm affect both the quality and the quantity of the product,” Jafarli said.
He said the current price situation reflects a basic supply-and-demand problem. When harvest volumes fall, less product reaches the market. That pushes prices higher.
“When productivity declines, supply in the market also drops, and this causes prices to rise. The smaller the amount of product, the more the market balance is disrupted. As a result, prices go up. From an economic point of view, this is an expected and logical process,” he said.
Jafarli said there is no clear reason to link the current increase to artificial pricing or any deeper market problem.
“In my view, there is no additional or more serious issue here. The main reason is the weather and the crop losses it caused. Agricultural products are directly dependent on natural conditions, so price changes in such cases are unavoidable,” he said.
The economist also noted that the problem is not limited to alcha. This year, lower yields have been observed in several agricultural products, and that is also affecting market prices.
For now, alcha prices may remain high for some time. As long as supply is limited, a quick and sharp drop in prices is unlikely.
AZE.US