Aze,US
Developments surrounding Iran increasingly resemble a scenario of gradual, negotiated transformation rather than abrupt collapse, according to REAL party chairman Natig Jafarli.
He described current U.S. strategy as one of “quiet diplomacy,” where public rhetoric may appear confrontational while substantive negotiations proceed discreetly through diplomatic and elite channels.
Washington’s primary objective, in his view, is not regime destruction but the identification of internal elite groups capable of assuming control and ensuring a controlled transition without large-scale destabilization-an approach seen in other geopolitical contexts.
Recent political arrests and internal tensions inside Iran may reflect competition among elite factions over the country’s future power structure, Jafarli said.
He suggested that a plausible long-term outcome could involve a softened political system featuring a symbolic верховная фигура-similar to a constitutional monarchy model-while real governance shifts toward elected institutions and executive authority.
Economic pressure remains the central driver of change. Despite vast resources and a large population, Iran’s fiscal capacity and household income levels lag significantly behind comparable regional economies, intensifying public demand for reform, particularly among a young, globally connected generation.
Jafarli does not rule out an acceleration of events in the coming weeks but expects any transition to remain limited in scale. Neither domestic actors nor external powers appear interested in uncontrolled chaos, making a managed, incremental shift the more likely trajectory.