AZE.US
U.S. President Donald Trump may send a senior representative to Moscow with a demand that Russia accept a ceasefire in Ukraine, Azerbaijani political analyst Eldar Namazov said.
According to Namazov, Washington could threaten tougher economic measures if the Kremlin rejects the proposal, including secondary sanctions targeting countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas.
Namazov argued that the Trump administration’s position has shifted as it became clear that Russia would not achieve a rapid military victory.
“Trump gave Putin time and an opportunity. He pressured Zelenskyy and reduced assistance to Ukraine, but it became clear that Russia could not win,” Namazov said, pointing to Ukraine’s expanding long-range strikes against targets inside Russia.
The analyst said the latest sanctions legislation under consideration in Washington could become an important source of leverage in future negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The proposed measures, sometimes described by their supporters as “sanctions from hell,” could affect China, India and other major buyers of Russian energy. Namazov noted that the legislation would not necessarily trigger sanctions automatically but could give Trump broader authority to impose them.
According to his assessment, Trump may first dispatch a high-ranking official to Moscow with what would amount to an ultimatum: accept a ceasefire along the current line of contact and begin political negotiations, or face significantly more severe economic consequences.
Namazov compared the possible mission with the November 2021 visit to Moscow by then-CIA Director William Burns. During that trip, Burns warned Russian officials about the consequences of a military escalation against Ukraine.
“A similar attempt may now be made,” Namazov said. “Moscow could be offered an opportunity to stop the fighting where the forces currently stand. If Russia refuses, Trump may use the powers granted by Congress to impose tough sanctions affecting trade in Russian energy.”
The analyst said measures against Russia’s energy revenues would be particularly damaging because oil and gas exports remain a critical source of funding for the Russian state and its military campaign.
Namazov also linked Washington’s changing approach to Ukraine’s increasing ability to strike oil refineries, fuel depots and other infrastructure deep inside Russia. He argued that the attacks are placing additional pressure on both the Russian economy and the domestic population.
The scenario outlined by Namazov remains an expert assessment. The White House has not officially announced plans to present Moscow with such an ultimatum.
AZE.US