AZE.US
Germany’s decision to close Russia’s consulate in Bonn and terminate the agreement governing the Russian House in Berlin signals a deeper and potentially long-term rupture between Berlin and Moscow, according to Germany-based journalist and political analyst Yevgeny Kudryats.
At the same time, the wars involving Ukraine and Iran are increasing Azerbaijan’s importance as an energy supplier and transit partner for Europe, Kudryats said in an interview with Rasim Babayev’s YouTube program, “Modern Conversation.”
Berlin and Moscow Enter a New Phase
Kudryats described the latest confrontation as more than another diplomatic dispute.
“This can already be called a diplomatic war. The closure of the consulate in Bonn became the final act of a long process,” he said.
The German government ordered the Russian Consulate General in Bonn to close by Sept. 18 and moved to terminate the agreement covering the Russian House in Berlin. German officials linked the measures to allegations of Russian involvement in hybrid attacks on German territory. Moscow has rejected the accusations.
Kudryats recalled that Germany expelled 40 Russian diplomats in April 2022 over suspicions that they were connected to Russian intelligence operations. The two countries sharply reduced their diplomatic presence in 2023.
He challenged the widespread view that Moscow and Berlin enjoyed genuinely warm relations during Angela Merkel’s time as chancellor.
“Germany received inexpensive Russian gas and promoted Nord Stream 2. Economic cooperation continued even after the annexation of Crimea,” he said. “It was not friendship. It was a cold and pragmatic calculation.”
That model, Kudryats argued, has now collapsed.
Russian Houses Face Greater Scrutiny
Discussing Berlin’s action against the Russian House, Kudryats said Russian-language education and cultural programs should continue in Europe but operate independently of Russian state institutions.
In his view, organizations administered by Rossotrudnichestvo are no longer seen solely as cultural centers. European governments increasingly regard them as instruments of Moscow’s political influence and “Russian World” ideology.
The program’s host, Azerbaijani journalist Rasim Babayev, drew a parallel with the suspension of the Russian House’s activities in Baku in February 2025.
That decision came during a serious deterioration in Azerbaijani-Russian relations following the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet.
The AZAL aircraft, traveling from Baku to Grozny, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Dec. 25, 2024. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said the plane was damaged from outside while flying over Russian territory near Grozny. Baku maintains that the aircraft was struck by ground fire and affected by electronic warfare systems.
Kudryats described Azerbaijan’s response as an earlier example of growing resistance to Russian state-backed influence abroad.
AZAL Crash Highlighted Aviation Risks
The interview also addressed the increasing dangers faced by civilian aircraft as the Russia-Ukraine war expands beyond the immediate front lines.
Kudryats said international airlines and insurance companies are likely to become more cautious about flights through Russian airspace. Further incidents could lead carriers to cancel routes or sharply increase ticket and insurance costs.
“The war has long since extended beyond Ukraine,” he said. “It now affects refineries, energy facilities, airports and civilian aviation.”
According to Kudryats, the AZAL crash demonstrated the risks of operating passenger flights in areas where air defense systems and electronic warfare equipment are active.
He argued that international aviation regulators should strengthen protections for civilian aircraft flying near conflict zones.
Europe Has Broken Its Dependence on Russian Gas
Kudryats said Moscow overestimated Germany’s dependence on Russian energy and expected Berlin to accept Russian conditions for continued supplies.
Instead, Germany accelerated its diversification efforts, expanded access to alternative suppliers and restructured its energy market.
“Monopoly always creates a dangerous dependence,” Kudryats said. “Europe learned that it cannot rely on one gas supplier or a single transportation route.”
Azerbaijan’s value to Europe is therefore no longer limited to gas exports, he said. The country is also becoming an increasingly important link in transport routes connecting Europe with Central Asia and China.
Kudryats said Germany’s interests favor a diversified foreign economic policy involving Azerbaijan, Türkiye, China and other partners rather than dependence on one geopolitical center.
Iran Conflict Raises the Value of the Middle Corridor
The renewed military confrontation involving the United States and Iran, along with disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, is further increasing the importance of routes passing through the South Caucasus.
Kudryats said continued instability around Iran creates serious risks for maritime trade and energy supplies. In that environment, the trans-Caspian route through Azerbaijan becomes strategically more valuable to European governments and businesses.
“When traditional routes are threatened, having alternatives becomes critically important,” he said. “Azerbaijan provides such an opportunity, and Germany is undoubtedly interested.”
Azerbaijan can contribute in several areas simultaneously – as a natural gas supplier, a central participant in the Middle Corridor and a potential exporter of renewable electricity to Europe.
Its location also allows cargo to move between Central Asia and European markets without passing through Russia or Iran.
Russian Presence in Armenia Questioned
Turning to the South Caucasus, Kudryats described Moscow’s policy of political and economic pressure on Armenia as increasingly ineffective.
He said Armenia could eventually raise the question of the future of Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Gyumri, despite the long-term bilateral agreements governing its presence.
Kudryats also pointed to Russian control over Armenia’s railway network, describing the transfer of such strategically important infrastructure to a foreign operator as a source of dependence.
At the same time, Azerbaijan’s readiness to potentially supply electricity to Armenia could reduce Yerevan’s energy vulnerability, particularly as the country confronts the long-term future of the aging Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant.
Greater access to Azerbaijani energy and regional transport networks could provide Armenia with alternatives to its traditional dependence on Russia, he said.
Economic Cooperation Could Support Peace
Kudryats said economic ties could gradually transform relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia after decades of conflict.
He cited the postwar reconciliation between Germany and France, which eventually became the central partnership driving European integration.
“I understand how difficult this issue remains for Azerbaijan after its territories were under occupation for many years,” Kudryats said.
“But economic cooperation and generational change may eventually reduce the intensity of past grievances.”
Energy trade, the reopening of regional transportation links and broader commercial relations could form the practical foundation for lasting stability in the South Caucasus, he said.
In Kudryats’ assessment, the simultaneous weakening of Russia’s influence, Europe’s search for alternative energy and trade routes, and the changing relationship between Baku and Yerevan are creating a new regional architecture in which Azerbaijan will occupy an increasingly important position.
AZE.US