By AZE.US
Russia would lose its position in the South Caucasus if it were to lose Armenia, and Moscow has made no decision to withdraw from the region, according to Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute.
Speaking on NEWS.am’s “Factor of Power” program, Iskandaryan said relations between Moscow and Yerevan remain in a deepening crisis despite expectations that tensions might ease after Armenia’s parliamentary elections.
According to the analyst, the dispute cannot be reduced to hostile rhetoric or the Armenian government’s pro-European messaging. The two countries continue to face concrete disagreements involving transportation links, nuclear energy, Russian-owned assets, Armenia’s legislation and the future of Russia’s military presence.
Iskandaryan described the situation as part of a wider transformation in Russia’s relations with former Soviet republics. He said the process accelerated after the 2020 war and extends beyond Armenia.
“Look at what is happening in Russian-Azerbaijani relations,” he said. “It is roughly the same process, although in a different form and perhaps with Azerbaijan playing a greater role than Russia. Similar developments are taking place in Central Asia.”
The analyst also noted that disagreements previously handled behind closed doors have increasingly turned into public confrontations.
He attributed this partly to the political style of Armenia’s current leadership, whose members emerged from journalism, social media and street protests rather than traditional state institutions. At the same time, Russia has become more willing to respond publicly to statements it considers hostile.
Iskandaryan said Moscow views its confrontation with the West as an existential conflict. As a result, Russia sees attempts by Western countries to expand their presence in regions that Moscow considers part of its strategic neighborhood as openly hostile acts.
He described Armenia’s declared European integration course primarily as a domestic political instrument, arguing that the country has no realistic prospect of joining the European Union in the foreseeable future.
Russian Base Is More Symbolic Than Military
Iskandaryan also commented on President Vladimir Putin’s statement that Russia was prepared to withdraw its military base if Armenia no longer needed it.
According to the analyst, Putin effectively shifted responsibility for any such decision to Yerevan and signaled that Armenia could not use the base as leverage in negotiations with Moscow.
Iskandaryan argued that Russia’s military base in Gyumri has limited operational value because of complicated and extended supply routes. Its primary significance, he said, is political and symbolic: it represents Russian support for Armenia and the remnants of their strategic partnership.
However, he warned that if Moscow were to sever economic relations after the weakening of security cooperation, arms supplies and political ties, Russia would lose its remaining mechanisms of influence over Armenia.
“By losing Armenia, Russia would lose the South Caucasus,” Iskandaryan said. “Neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia could replace Armenia.”
He stressed that the Kremlin has not decided to abandon the region. Russia’s involvement in discussions surrounding transportation routes, military infrastructure and regional projects indicates that Moscow still intends to maintain a presence.
Azerbaijan’s Regional Power Has Grown
Iskandaryan said the balance of power in the South Caucasus has fundamentally changed, with Azerbaijan seeking recognition as the region’s leading state.
“Azerbaijan is the largest, wealthiest and militarily strongest country in the South Caucasus,” he said, adding that Baku also benefits from its close alliance with Turkey.
In the analyst’s assessment, Azerbaijan wants to shape regional affairs on its own terms while building separate relationships with Russia, Turkey, Iran and Europe. This means that outside powers must now take Baku’s position into account when developing policies toward the South Caucasus.
Iskandaryan said he agreed with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s broader argument that the region can no longer be managed under the old geopolitical model and that Russia must develop a new approach.
Azerbaijan is important to Moscow because of its energy resources, its land border with Russia and its role in the International North-South Transport Corridor linking Russia with Iran. Armenia, meanwhile, remains important as Russia’s principal instrument for maintaining a direct geopolitical presence in the South Caucasus, he argued.
“If Russia wants to participate in this new configuration, it needs Armenia,” Iskandaryan said. “And as of today, Russia has not decided that it no longer wants to participate.”
The analyst also warned that Armenia could eventually find itself without meaningful support from either Russia or Europe and forced to deal directly with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
He described that scenario as highly probable, although not inevitable, and said it could leave Armenia increasingly dependent on its two neighbors in economic and political terms.
AZE.US