AZE.US
Azerbaijan may face a serious demographic crisis within the next 20 to 25 years if current birth trends continue, economist Natig Jafarli has warned.
Writing on Facebook, Jafarli said the country’s birth statistics over the past several years already show what Azerbaijan’s demographic picture may look like in the future.
“This should become one of the main topics of public discussion, because tomorrow may be too late,” he wrote.
According to the figures cited by Jafarli, 126,571 children were born in Azerbaijan in 2020. The number fell to 112,284 in 2021, rose to 122,846 in 2022, then dropped again to 112,620 in 2023.
In 2024, Azerbaijan recorded 102,310 births. In 2025, the number declined further to 95,875.
That means annual births have fallen by more than 30,000 compared with 2020.
Jafarli said the trend is especially troubling because the state must plan not only for today, but for the next 10, 20 and 30 years.
Fewer girls being born
Jafarli said one of the most dangerous parts of the trend is the steady decline in the number of girls being born.
He wrote that in 2025, Azerbaijan recorded 50,910 newborn boys and 44,965 newborn girls. On average, he said, there have been about 114 boys for every 100 girls among newborns in recent years.
Jafarli linked this imbalance to selective abortions, saying Azerbaijan remains among the countries where the issue is particularly serious.
The economist said the decline in the number of girls will directly affect the country’s future birth rate.
In 2024 and 2025 combined, 93,054 girls were born in Azerbaijan. Their reproductive age will come roughly 20 to 25 years from now.
Jafarli said that by that time, some will have moved abroad for education or work, some may marry foreign citizens, and some may choose not to marry or have children.
As a result, he estimated that only around 70,000 to 75,000 women from that age group may directly influence Azerbaijan’s future demographic situation.
Births could fall sharply
Even if the fertility rate reaches two children per woman, Jafarli said, that would still mean about 140,000 to 150,000 children over the reproductive period for that group.
In annual terms, based on real trends, he warned that the number of births could eventually fall to around 40,000 to 50,000 a year.
That would mean Azerbaijan could see roughly half as many children born each year compared with the current level.
“It is already possible to say that in 20 to 25 years, the number of births in the country will fall sharply and may drop to around 50,000 a year. This is a very bad scenario and a threat to the state,” Jafarli wrote.
Pension system also at risk
Jafarli said the demographic decline could also create a serious pension crisis within 15 to 20 years.
As the population ages, the number of retirees will rise, while the working-age population will shrink. That would place growing pressure on the pension system, the labor market and the state budget.
He said Azerbaijan must first acknowledge the scale of the problem before looking for solutions.
“The path to recovery begins with accepting the illness,” Jafarli wrote.
AZE.US