Fitch Solutions expects Azerbaijan’s general government budget to remain in surplus in 2026 and 2027, though the positive balance is projected to narrow slightly.
The analytical company forecasts a surplus equal to 2.4% of gross domestic product in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, according to an APA-Economics report cited by Vesti Baku.
Fitch Solutions revised its outlook upward after government revenue exceeded its earlier expectations in late 2025 and the first half of 2026. The figures are forecasts for the general government balance and may differ from projections based only on the central state budget.
Energy and Non-Oil Revenue Support the Outlook
Analysts linked the stronger fiscal position to elevated global energy prices, higher oil and gas revenue, cautious spending policy and continued growth in tax receipts from the non-oil economy.
Fitch Solutions estimated that non-oil sources would account for 57.4% of Azerbaijan’s state budget revenue in 2026. A larger non-oil share would reduce the budget’s dependence on transfers from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan.
The company also said the conservative oil-price assumption used in budget planning provides a buffer if global energy markets weaken.
The outlook remains sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, public investment and the pace of non-oil tax collection. A projected surplus therefore represents an expected outcome rather than a guaranteed year-end result.