AZE.US
Russia risks losing its remaining influence in Armenia and across the South Caucasus if it severs economic ties with Yerevan, Armenian political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan said.
Speaking on the YouTube channel Modern Conversation, Iskandaryan said Moscow does not appear ready to abandon the region, although its political and security leverage has sharply declined.
“The best way to lose Armenia, and with it the South Caucasus, is to cut economic ties with Armenia, because Russia has no other instruments of influence left,” he said.
Armenia has effectively stopped cooperating with Russia in the security sphere, while Russian peacekeepers have withdrawn from Karabakh. The mechanisms Moscow once used to influence both Yerevan and Baku have largely disappeared, Iskandaryan said.
Economic ties, however, remain significant. Around 40% of Armenian exports go to the Russian market, with agricultural products accounting for a substantial share.
Restrictions on Armenian goods would primarily affect farmers, small towns and rural communities, which Iskandaryan described as an important part of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s political base.
He questioned whether economic pressure could force Armenia to change course, arguing that sanctions rarely produce the political outcome sought by the country imposing them.
“Sanctions almost never work,” he said, pointing to Iran as an example of a country that has faced decades of restrictions without abandoning its policies.
Iskandaryan also highlighted what he called the contradictory nature of Moscow’s approach.
Russian officials and state media have sharply criticized Armenia’s government, while Russian regulators have imposed or threatened restrictions on Armenian products. At the same time, Moscow continues to offer cooperation on major projects, including a new nuclear power plant and investment in railway infrastructure.
This suggests Russia still wants to preserve a working relationship with Armenia, despite the growing political tensions, he said.
Iskandaryan expects the crisis in Russian-Armenian relations to continue, but he does not foresee a complete break in the near future.
He also suggested that Pashinyan could visit Moscow later this month, although such a meeting would not immediately resolve the disputes between the two countries.
“The problems will remain, but attempts will probably be made to find some form of compromise,” Iskandaryan said.
AZE.US