AZE.US
The war may be over, but the image of the enemy remains deeply rooted in both Azerbaijani and Armenian society.
Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute, and Azerbaijani political analyst Azad Isazade discussed the psychological and political legacy of the conflict during a conversation on the Echo Baku channel.
The discussion focused on how victory and defeat have shaped both societies, why Azerbaijanis and Armenians increasingly mirror each other, and what would be needed to move from the end of fighting to normal coexistence.
Iskandaryan said Azerbaijan has begun adopting some of the attitudes that were common in Armenia after the first Karabakh war.
He was referring not only to a “victor’s complex,” but also to the belief that military success is permanent, that the balance of power will never change, and that the winning side can act without limits.
“We are strong, we won, everything is allowed to us, and what happened will last forever,” Iskandaryan said, describing the mood that once spread through Armenian society.
According to him, those attitudes prevented Armenia from properly assessing changes in the region and contributed to strategic miscalculations.
“Unfortunately, Azerbaijanis are taking from us things that are far from the best we have,” he said.
Isazade agreed that Azerbaijan has begun mirroring certain Armenian political and historical narratives.
He pointed to the growing role of historical grievances, the concept of “Western Azerbaijan,” and the reinterpretation of early 20th-century events through the lens of the current confrontation.
The analyst stressed that this does not mean the historical events themselves were invented. The issue, he said, is how history is used in present-day politics and turned into a tool of national mobilization.
At the same time, Isazade argued that the postwar euphoria in Azerbaijan did not last long.
The strongest public reaction came in November 2020 after the capture of Shusha. The events of September 2023, which effectively ended the Karabakh conflict, did not produce the same large-scale street celebrations.
“We had already celebrated for three years, and life continued,” Isazade said.
The two analysts also discussed the deep divide between personal experience and mass perceptions.
Isazade recalled the story of an Azerbaijani refugee woman who had lived in a tent camp in the late 1990s. She expressed hatred toward Armenians as a group, but cried after receiving a letter from a former Armenian classmate.
This contradiction remains common in both societies.
A person may remember an Armenian or Azerbaijani friend, neighbor or colleague with warmth, while continuing to view the other nation as hostile.
“The Armenians I knew, worked with or studied with were all good. Those I do not know are all bad,” Isazade said, describing the logic of mass perception.
Iskandaryan said the problem is even more serious among younger generations.
Many Armenians and Azerbaijanis under the age of 40 have never met anyone from the neighboring country in ordinary life. Their views have been shaped almost entirely by television, wartime footage, official rhetoric and propaganda.
Older generations often remember former classmates, colleagues and neighbors. Younger people have no such personal memories to challenge the enemy image.
Both analysts said real contact is essential if the two societies are to reduce hostility.
Iskandaryan was skeptical of sealed transport corridors that allow people to cross neighboring territory without interacting with the local population.
He said genuine normalization would look very different.
An Azerbaijani truck driver should be able to cross an ordinary Armenian border, exchange manats for drams, stop at a roadside cafe and speak to its owner, he said.
Such everyday encounters, rather than political slogans, could gradually weaken decades of fear and hostility.
Isazade said the immediate goal should not be friendship between nations, but stable and safe neighborly relations.
He used a striking metaphor to describe the likely future.
Armenians and Azerbaijanis may eventually bury their spears, he said, but they will not bury them deeply. Each side will remember where the weapon was left and will want to be able to reach it again.
That distrust may survive for years.
The challenge is to make sure neither society feels the need to dig the weapons back up.
AZE.US