BAKU, Azerbaijan - The World Bank lowered its forecast for Azerbaijan’s economic growth in 2026 to 1.2%, a reduction of 0.8 percentage point from its April estimate, while Fitch said about $91 billion in sovereign external assets and a current-account surplus near 11% of GDP should support the country’s financial resilience.
The updated World Bank and Fitch estimates were released Oct. 6. Together, they point to a contrast: Azerbaijan retains a substantial financial cushion, but growth is slowing and inflation remains above the level of comparable countries.
Growth Is Slowing
The World Bank kept its forecast for Azerbaijan’s GDP growth in 2027 at 1.8%. It estimated that the economy expanded 1.4% in 2025.
World Bank representative Stefanie Loris Guy Dibi cited Azerbaijan’s low public debt, international reserves and stable fiscal and external positions as strengths. She also warned that import dependence transmits higher prices from abroad, while elevated inflation weighs on purchasing power and investment.
$91 Billion in Assets and 6.1% Inflation
Fitch expects the combined external assets of Azerbaijan’s Central Bank and State Oil Fund to reach about $91 billion in 2026. Net sovereign external assets are estimated at 73% of GDP, while government debt remains below 20% of GDP. The median debt level for countries in the BBB rating category is about 57% of GDP.
Fitch also forecasts a consolidated budget surplus of about 3.7% of GDP and a current-account surplus near 11% of GDP. Average annual inflation is projected at 6.1% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027, compared with about 4% and 3%, respectively, for comparable countries.
The main medium-term challenges remain reducing the oil dependence of public finances, diversifying the economy and bringing inflation back to lower levels.
Sources: World Bank growth forecast; Fitch on assets and debt; Fitch on the current-account surplus; Vesti Baku.