AZE.US
Azerbaijan is waiting for the outcome of Armenia’s parliamentary election before the next major phase in talks between Baku and Yerevan, but a rapid breakthrough should not be expected, Armenian political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan said.
Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute, made the comments in an interview with the YouTube channel Modern Conversation with Rasim Babayev.
He said the post-election agenda will again bring several difficult issues to the table, including Azerbaijan’s political demands, the question of constitutional changes in Armenia, economic ties, transport communications, and the delimitation and demarcation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
According to Iskandaryan, Baku is clearly waiting for the results of the Armenian vote. But he said that does not mean the two sides will quickly move toward final agreements once the election is over.
He paid particular attention to the issue of possible constitutional changes in Armenia. Iskandaryan said it was difficult to imagine how such a referendum would be held and what result it would produce. He also raised a central political question: if Armenian voters reject constitutional amendments, would that mean peace with Azerbaijan can no longer be built?
Iskandaryan described recent cargo movements between Azerbaijan and Armenia as political symbols rather than full-scale economic normalization. He pointed to small shipments moving through Georgia rather than directly across the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.
“Three wagons, five wagons, 10 wagons, wheat, gasoline. All of this, note, is through Georgia, not directly,” he said. He called such steps encouraging, but said they still fall short of real economic normalization.
The analyst also linked the Armenia-Turkey track to the Armenia-Azerbaijan process. In his view, Ankara and Baku are acting in a closely coordinated way, and a serious breakthrough between Armenia and Turkey is unlikely without movement in relations between Yerevan and Baku.
Iskandaryan said Armenia and Azerbaijan still have enough disagreements, and enough different views on the same issues, to make any settlement difficult.
“Armenia and Azerbaijan have enough contradictions, enough different views on the same problems, for this to be easy,” he said.
AZE.US