AZE.US
Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade has said Armenia’s pre-election struggle has entered its final stage and is no longer just a domestic political contest, but a debate over the country’s future role in the region.
Velizade, head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists Club, made the comments in an interview with Vitaly Barvinenko’s YouTube channel. He said two political lines are now clashing in Armenia: one based on state subjectivity and another tied to the old model of serving as an instrument for outside powers.
According to Velizade, Armenian society is facing a deep political divide. He described the forces opposing Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan as representatives of a previous system in which Armenia was used by external actors for their own regional projects.
For Russia, Velizade said, Armenia long served as an instrument against Turkey and Azerbaijan. For part of the Armenian diaspora in the West, he added, Armenia was also viewed as a tool against Turkey.
In that model, he argued, former ruling groups in Yerevan maintained power through the idea of a “besieged fortress,” constantly presenting Turkey and Azerbaijan as permanent threats and keeping society in a state of fear.
Pashinyan, Velizade said, is moving in the opposite direction. His approach is based on the recognition that Armenia lives in a specific regional environment and cannot indefinitely exist through fear, isolation and dependence on external patrons.
“We live in this environment. We have no other environment and will not have one,” Velizade said, summarizing the logic behind Pashinyan’s position.
The analyst said Armenia’s subjectivity matters not only for Yerevan but for the entire South Caucasus. Only with an independent Armenia, he argued, can Azerbaijan negotiate with confidence that any agreements will not depend on signals from Moscow, Paris or other external centers.
Velizade said Azerbaijan needs an Armenia capable of making decisions on its own behalf, rather than a country acting according to the “word of a master.”
He also sharply criticized Armenia’s former leaders, saying their image as strong politicians was largely manufactured. In his view, they sold society an image of strength while remaining dependent on outside powers.
Velizade said Armenia’s current choice goes far beyond a routine election campaign. It is a question of whether the country becomes an independent political actor or returns to the role of a vehicle for someone else’s geopolitical projects.
AZE.US